The Syracuse Journal, Volume 1, Number 52, Syracuse, Kosciusko County, 29 April 1909 — Page 2

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imS A vIW MW Y \ ( / 7 \ \f 7 cxt.ijtur ; '.-■> V.' X Jr t«6o© ■sSwox/ (/ / \\ . ae*JUP f\\< s^> v t w \ i ( OioxEys wy /5) Ls i x /h 7 i /j 0 C»i iiZtxi J-Ts*i J \ )\^z \ 3 ( ' '>Z>^VZVZ-S-r>-rsZ^XSZ , VZ%Z ** Chicago makes the price of wheat* the world over. Chicago doesn’t make the price of wheat because, as many people believe, the pit in the big Board of Trade, the scene of many a -stirring speculative drama, gathers together a horde of rich, rash plungers who make prices go up or down by sheer force of money. Nor does the Chicago pit make the price because any considerable part of the.actual wheat crop of the country is handled in Chicago. Nor does the pit make the price ber

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, —UB cause the . United States raises the bulk of the world’s crop. The wheat pit, where fortunes are made and lost by daring speculators, makes prices for the world because the pit, is, the clearing house of the world's opinion of the production and consumption of wheat. All the world's knowledge of the wheat trade, from the Dakotas to Argentine, from the Red River to the Danube, from Manitoba to India, is focused in the Chicago wheat pit. The telegraph wires carry instantly to Chicago news and rumors of monsoons in India, rain in Kansas, frost in Minnesota, war clouds in the Balkans, drought in Argentine, failures iii Liverpool, “black rust " in Russia —eVery bit of information that may affect tile price of wheat. Chicago knows from day to day the weather in every conntry on the globe.' the shipments from every seaport ahd inland distributing point, the receipts and deliveries by the railroads. lake boats and ocean steamers, the receipts at elevators and flour hiills, Chicago knows just how many acres are sown to wheat in. every country in the world, ftnd knows, besides, from day to day. in the season, just what its fpromise is for the, harvest. No factor than can have any bearing on prices! to-day. to-morrow dr next year is overlooked. “How Are the Cropst” The wheat pit focuses this knowledge not only for the speculators in the eomipodity. but for the world of industry land commerce. Early in the spring the country begins to ask: “How are the crops?" Our prosperity during the twelve months following the harvest depends, in a very large measure. on the answer to this question. Out of the gfbund comes our wealthin these [years of abundant prosperity the farmer takes from the earth each harvest season products of a value of $4,(M)0,00(i,000, and more than a third of this enormous. Sum represents the two great crops of the West"—corn and wheat, i ’ The question. “How are the crops?” becomes each year, as the harvest time approaches, bhe of vital importance. and the earlier the knowledge of the size and quality of the crops the more valuable it is to the commercial community. Railway men need to know in advance the outcome of the harvest, I that they may prepare for the transportation of the crops to the markets. . Bumper corn means big tonnage, not only of products from the farms tq the consumers, but also of merchandise from the manufacturing towns td the farms, bought by the farmers with their produce, When railway men are assured of big crops they spend many millions of dollars for new! locomotives and cars and rails, and many millions more for the improvement of their roadbeds and the extension of their lines into nhw territory. The steelmakers are jointly interested with the railway men in the harvest, for half of the enormous product of the steel mills of this country is purchased by the railways. When the crops fail the railways cancel their orders for rails and bridges and equipment, and steel descends from prince to pauper. Then all the big manufacturers of the country, whether of ’ wagons or plows, of shoes or clothing, must know whether their great consumer, the farmer. is td have money to spend from harvest to harvest. So it is with the merchants all through the agricultural country). Even more important is early knowledge of the crop prospects to the bankers, who must not only

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finance the movement of the crops to market, but must also know whether the harvest is to eaiise expansion or contraction of capital ventures through the country. Then there ,are the flour millers and elevator owners, who are directly interested in the marketing of 1 the crops. Speculation as Sclent;*. Finally There is the great body of men who sjteculate in the rise and fall in commodity prices and who risk

THE WAY IT WORKS. I ■ - v ■ , • - 1 /. ~W- -a ■< 'I a'l/t {WW/fi ill Wsigwliy w «Ji fe\ if«i /rW _/ * » =9 / ' ___■===» ' M & == ~=i . S— - & 6> —Sioux City Journal. ■ I*—‘"" 1 — - —

many millions of dollars annually in backing their opinions as to the volume of the crops and the demand for them in the grain markets of the world. The big speculation in wheat results from the fact that no one knows from year to year what the outcome of the harvest will be or whether prices will go up or down. But men of intelligence, foresight and daring can make use of all the news that comes to hand from day to day and forecast prices. When their forecasts are sound they have the opportunity of making great fortunes. When their forecasts are wrong or when they attempt to obstruct the natural 1 laws of supply and demand they invite ‘ ruin, ami many a man has been ruined in the wheat pit. The greaf wheat speculators make ! speculation a science. Patten, Armour 5 and other big wheat speculators plan their campaign in a large measure on ' the estimates made of the size of the r forthcoming world harvests by train--7 ed fort casters. The government, rec- ’ bguizing the importance of early knowledge of the outcome of the harvest. has established a very elaborate 1 system of crop reporting, and the govs eminent figures as to the acreage, con--3 ditfqn and yield of the cereals form a ’ basts of all crop estimates. At the service ‘ of; the government are more than 250,000 crop correspondents, of whom 10.000 are paid, and the weekly and monthly reports of these correspondents, fprwarded by telegraph or post to Washington, are reviewed by a board of statistical experts, who consolidate them into public reports. The Government Reporta. The government’s monthly report for the first of the month is issued on the 10th. On December 10 is issued the first report of the acreage sown to winter wheat, and the average condition, 100 being used as the normal. Three months later is reported the amount of the previous season’s crop still in farmers’ hands. Condition reports are made in April, June and July. The May report also revises the acreage estimate, deducting for win-ter-killed and abandoned acreage. The

July report makes a second estimate of the amount of wheat in ' farmers’ hands.. In August the yield ner acre •is reported. The sprihg wheat reports begin in July, and in September the harvest condition, of both crops is given. In October the yield per acre and the quality of spring wheat are reported. Late in December a final estimate is made by the Department of Agriculture of the volume of a'l the crops of the country for the year.

But the government’s crop reports, despite all the elaborate system that has been developed to make them trustworthy, do not satisfy the big speculators or the men whose business ventures are influenced by the harvest. Every railway system in the wheat and corn belt has its own reports from correspondents and experts. Hill, of the Great Northern, for example, knows just how much wheat he will have to haul* from every station on his lines in Minnesota and the Dakotas weeks in advance of the government

SCENE IN THE WHEAT PIT OF THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE. ii ill Iwi i' ll s Bl Si l i — ■—Ms — » _ H iwM 'll ■ p » wiOwlii w® 71 // j V > O flßf XN

reports. The Hilt lines receive many millions of dollars a year from the transportation of wheat and corn, and this revenue varies with the volume of the crops. One of the big Chicago banks, which has correspondents all

through the grain publishes a detailed estimate of the wheat crop, and bther banks have private reports. Laihge industrial companies, like the Standard Oil Company and the International Harvester Company, have elaborate systems for private estimates. So do the great elevator people, like the Armours, and the large grain brokerajje houses. Grain experts are em- > ploypd by these principals, not only to travel back and forth over the grain I belt!of this country and Canada, but also; to study and estimate the probable, crops of the other great exerting couirtries —Russia. India. Australia and ‘ Argentina. But the crop reports that are-behind the speculative campaigns : are ’those made by private experts. ] CornertnK a Lohliik Game. Cornering tlm wheat market nowais almost a sure losing game. No wise men try it. “Joe" Leiter's bold) attempt was typical. In 189 T, when he tried to corner the market, he had the strongest wheat position even known in the trade. Mlie importing of Europe had proditced only? bushels of wheat, against 990,000.000 bushels the year before. Reserves everywhere were low. Among exporting countries ahe United Stales alone showetl any considerable surplus. To buy this surplus was to make Europe pay the holders' own priep for it —theoretically. But with every few cents' advance at Chicago, grain appeared as if by The Northwest scraped its granaries. Russia ate rye and emptied- its mill bins of wheat. Argentina swept the floor. In December the Chicago market was cornered—on paper; but ’ Armour kept steel-prowed tugs plowing up the ice at the head of the lakes, and by lake and rail moved 8,0C9,000 bushels from Minnesota and the Dakotas in midwinter. Mr. Leiter paid for every bushel of it, and marked khe price up from 85 cents to $1.09. Still more granaries were emptied, and wheat poured to market. Jfhe war between the United States an<jl Spain came on. as opportunely for the deal as though it had been carefully devised. Europe became pan-ic-stricken over a vision of American wheat shipments cut off by Spanish inen-of-war. France suspended her wheat import duties of cents buihel. Other countries followed. At ClAcago $1.45 was ixiid- for cash wheat for export. The newspapers figured Mr. Le,iter’s profits far into the millions. Bi;t with every advance in price more wl’ieat appeared, and when it came to disposing of the fortyoor fifty million, t bushels that had been accumulated in ! controlling the market, the paper I profits melted, a huge deficit appeared. 3 Then there was the Harper deal in 1887. A mysterious “bull clique" bet gan to dominate the market by enori mous purchases of the May option. Evf 'eryone knew that a “deal” far greater than any ever attempted on the board 1 was afoot. The purchase of wheat j went on. A thousand carloads a day ? poured into the city. Warehouses t were choked. Railroad sidings were

full of laden cars waiting for some place to unload. Still the mysterious clique bought it; it seemed to have endless resources. v Panic and Rnin. The air of the board was tense with

J. A. PATTEN, SAID TO HAVE MADE FORTUNE IN WHEAT. Wk IWTi James A. Fatten, who is said to have gained a fortune out of the recent rise in May wheat, has been conspicuous for several years as a daring and successful Chicago board of trade operator in wheat and corn. He has been in the board of trade business since 1878 and previously served four years as an employe of the State grain inspection department cago. Mr. Fatten lives in Evanston, 111., and was mayor of that city four years, besides serving two terms as aiderman. He was born in. Dekalb County. Illinois, in 1852, and as a boy' worked in a country store and on a farm. I •— ■ • J battle. It was a -fight between the clique and thq trade. Saturday. June 11, the market opened firm, with May wheat 86 cents, the clique apparently in full control. But some dperators of skill and power at length were ready to come to close quarters —to try a thrust of pikes. There was a furious raid on “May.” and the price broke to 82ta cents—not so much, only it showed that the clique was not omnipotent after all. Monday there was a truce. But early Tuesday morning defeat was in the air. At the first tap of the bell July was down to 80 cents. The pit became a rout, a panic. The immense structure of the clique, built into the trade by enortnous purchases extending ovfeir four months, was plainly going to pieces. The bears flung themselves upon it without thought of caution. By noon cash wheat had dropped 20 cents. At that hour Secretary Stone appeared in the small south gallery and began announcing the failures. There were nineteen failures on the board. When the wreck was cleared up a few days later it

was found that E. U Harper, vice president of the Fidelity Bank of Cincinnati, was the clique; that he had ruined himself and looted the bank of its last available dollar to carry on the deal

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