The Mail-Journal, Volume 28, Number 50, Milford, Kosciusko County, 24 January 1990 — Page 2

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THE MAIL-JOURNAL —Wed., January 24,1990

Consultant study —

Modest growth projected at Wawasee

By DEB PATTERSON Staff Writer

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Dr. Harmon A. Baldwin and Dr. Dean F. Berkley recently completed a consultant study for the Wawasee Community School Corporation to assist the board in realizing short and long term goals. The study covered enrollment projec-

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tions, facilities, financing school construction, and a summary and recommendation. This is the first of a series covering the contents of the study.) Projections made by Dr. Harman A. Baldwin and Dr. • Dean F. Berkey, professors at Indiana University, in a

report to the Wawasee Community School Board earlier this year, suggest a modest growth in enrollment during the next five years in the school corporation. The study states retardation and acceleration of students have a direct impact on enrollments. Determining the ratio between

grade levels provides the basis foF projecting enrollments and is often referred to as a continuation factor. The continuation factor shows if enrollments are increasing, decreasing or stable. A factor of .99 reflects stability. A factor less than .99 indicates enrollments are decreasing, and if in excess of 1.00, it indicates an increasing enrollment due to in-migration.

Continuation factors are computed on the basis of aggregate numbers of pupils per grade over a period of time. This is one of several considerations used in estimating future enrollments and is a basic factor used in many computations. Based on enrollment figures for kindergarten through 12 from 1985-1986 through 1989-1990, the averaged continuation factors for

the last three years range from .86 for grades one-two to 1.24 for kindergarten-first. Examination of the 1989-1990 enrollments by the consultants reveal some observations need to be taken into account as pupils move through the system. The first grade, although the largest class with an enrollment of 342, includes readiness class students who will attend first grade in the succeeding school year. This practice may impact on retention ratios for succeeding grades. Further, if the practice were modified it would have an impact on subsequent grade enrollments. The largest class by a sizable margin, is fourth grade with 303 students. This bulge will continue as those pupils succeed. The average class size in grades two through five is 281, in grades six through eight the average class size, is 252. In the high school the average class is 227. By taking the ninth grade out, the average drops to 214. Applying the average continuation factors for the past three years, the projected grade nine-12 enrollments would approximate the following: 1989-1990, 907 students; 1990-1991, 893 students; 1991-1992, 937 students; 1992-1993, 974 students, 1993- 1,000 students; and 1994- 1,098 students. The IU professors say this is due to the increases in elementary school enrollments over the past six years, with some migration at the high school level. Also, the holding power at the high school is high compared to comparable schools. The dramatic swing in enrollment over the past five years from a high of 100 to a low of minus four, illustrates the difficulty of projecting enrollments in finite terms. Yet consultants feel school officials must accommodate these swings in terms of classroom space. Assuming maximum utilization of classroom space, the equivalent of another two or three classrooms would be needed. Kindergarten enrollments are generally not reliable indicators as many students who are eligible to attend, either do not enroll or enroll in first grade elsewhere. Projecting Growth A host of factors relate to population growth and resultant impact on enrollments. Situations are further compounded because of casual relationships. An example would be an area which may have a well developed master plan for land usage but lacks utilities to develop its potential. Any one, or combination of the following can have a bearing on population: zoning, availability and cost of mortgage money, employment opportunities, extent of and training of the work force, statutes of the infrastructure, quality of life, changing nature of the family and housing starts. Consultants state the average household in the county is estimated at 2.9, slightly higher than the state average of 2.7. The number of occupants per residence has decreased due to delayed families, no families, smaller families, or single parent families. Any changes in the school enrollment will be of inmigration unless the average household number changes. Housing starts can be an indicator, but is a problem predictor in the Wawasee school corporation. Consultants state there is not enough information to permit a definitive conclusion. An example is no distinction in data between seasonal and permanent housing; nothing to indicate if housing replaces another residence or migration into the district; nothing is known about occupancy of units or what new units can impact on the population. Housing starts in the corporation averaged 170 during each of the last three years. Yet, the

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enrollment for kindergarten through 12 has increased no more than 40 per year. Concerning a mobile home park in the Milford area, consultants feel it will be several years before all units are occupied. They urged school officials to monitor its progress and establish a per unit yield in terms of school age children, and if they are vacating other homes in the corporation. A mobile home park, planned north of Pierceton just off US 30, was also noted in the study. Computing Enrollments One method to compute enrollments is to apply the continuation factor grade-by-grade. This takes into account peaks and valleys of enrollment data and accounts for in/out migration based on the history of the past three years.

Wal-Mart announces scholarship program

Officials of the Warsaw WalMart store have announced an area high school senior will be selected this spring as the recipient of a SI,OOO Wal-Mart Foundation Community Scholarship. The scholarship, payable over a one-year period and awarded to a college or university bound student, will be based on the student’s scholastic and academic achievements, extra curricular and work activities, and financial need. Store Manager Chuck Pribbernow said, “We are very pleased to offer this annual scholarship to a deserving area student on behalf of our store and the company. Through Wal-Mart’s Scholarship Program, we can contribute to the quality of life in

..'- \K w •* BBL i%l MW aßb > M \I : MB ■S" %■“I Bfil ' 4^^BWw^w' ' ■ .- mi B fl >. ~W BB I I •>■■ *' AMERICAN LEGION COUNTY COMMANDER - Robert Rassi of Milford, pictured above, was installed as Commander of the American Legion Kosciusko County Council at Milford’s Legion Post No. 226 on Sunday. The county wide ceremony was presided over by past county commander Richard Smith of Pierceton and in addition to Rassi, other officers installed were: Roger Cormican (Ist Vice Commander), Max Ganshorn (2nd Vice Commander), Bob Meadows (Adjutant) and Oscar Werner (Finance Officer). Also installed at the ceremony were: Russell Ruch (Chaplain), Fred Koser (Sergeant-At-Arms), Ed McCorkle (Service Officer) and Don Creakbaum (Judge Advocate). Arthur Bayne of Warsaw was the retiring county commander. The Kosciusko County Council of the American Legion is composed of five delegates and five alternate delegates from each of the seven county Legion Posts, the seven Kosciusko County posts have a combined membership of around 2,500 veterans. The American Legion’s interests are many fold. In addition to veterans and veteran affairs, children, youth and community service are stressed. (Photo by Scott Davidson)

Another estimate can be made using the kindergarten through 12 continuation factor of 1.01, the three year average. Based on the population projections of the state board of health/Indiana Business Research Center and assuming the same percentage of kindergarten through 12 enrollment, the enrollment projections by the consultants would be between 3,543 students for the 1990-1991 school year to 3,660 for the 1994-1995 school year. These projections suggest a modest growth in the next five years. The consultants stated if the present enrollment persisted it would reflect some migration into the corporation given the proportionately smaller early age groups who account for the school population.

the Warsaw community and to the opportunities of our area youth.” Pribbernow went on to explain a team of judges, consisting of area business and community leaders, would be formed to evaluate the applications and make a final selection during student interviews. Interested students may obtain applications from their school counselor or administrative office. Applications must be returned to the school by the third week of February. The Warsaw Wal-Mart scholarship is one of over 1,300 scholarships totalling over $1.3 million being given by the Bentonville, Arkansas-based retail chain throughout its 27 state, 1,325 store trade territory.