Richmond Palladium (Daily), Volume 46, Number 44, 31 December 1920 — Page 8
PAGE. EIGHT
7 DLOPMENT OE 33TORLD-WIDE PEPRESSION Fall in G)mmodity Prices Liqmdatioa in. Securities De
preciation, of Foreign Exchanges and Currency In
flationCrises in Far East and ' South ; . America Good Year for Crops
The year which. nd today saw the collapse of a world-wide speculation in commodities and securities which, had been superimposed on the wartime Inflation of currency and credit. Last spring's level of commodity prices was higher than any on record and the ensuing fall in staple commodities was precipitate. Although the year opened with appearances of prosperity, Japan, where speculation had been pushed to the most reckless limits, went Into a crisis daring the early spring, and before the year was over virtually the whole world was in depression. British India's trade and China's have collapsed, carrying silver with them; and " the Far East's biggest export commodities rubber, tea, hides, and skins have become drugs on the market. South America cannot pay her debts 1 because of the extreme drops in the prices of coffee, wheat, wool, and . hides and skins. i Europe, naturally, has felt -these trade reactions, and In addition has had to struggle with increasing currency depreciation, unbalanced budgets, and political and credit uncertainties. In our own country ' the familiar signs of the waning business cycle have appeared, such as falling prices, Increasing unemployment, and i a multiplication of the number of busiiness difficulties and failures. Attention now centres on forecasts of when the depression will end. ! The following groups of events have Iboen selected as bearing particularly I upon the past financial yeari i (1) The Treaty of Peace at VerUailles was formally signed and put : into effect on Jan. 10, and the League of Nations definitely organized on Jan. ,1S, in both noteworthy, ceremonies the linked States being conspicuously absent. , - v,v, ';"' .- (2) The presidential ; election gave -wide' discussion to the whole League of Nations Issue, and aroused considerable comment upon our future 'foreign; relations. Domestic Issues iwere left decidedly in ' the background throughout! -indeed, they were scarcely raised at all. The various financial markets during the early part of the year anticipated a Republican victory es a pre-requlsite of business recovery, t Curiously enough, the outcome of the election had been discounted long - beforehand, and the overwhelming victory of Senator Harding gave the market , none of the buoyancy which had been prophesied. Obviously, the markets were under the control of factors more fundamental. . (3) Commodity prices, here and abroad, reached their record high for All time early in the year, and then began a precipitable dicline, which has not yet stopped. . Bradstreet's raw material Index, of domestic prices at wholesale' reached its record high or 0.86aflpn Feb; this year, then fell' off unfrrbv Dec. 1 it had fallen 34.6
percent, thul-bringing the index down to only 48 percent above 1913. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' more representative index reached its record high of 272 during May, taking 1913 as 100. but has gone downward ever since to 207 by November. The Economist index of British prices rose to a record high of 310 in March, taking 3913 as 100, but had fallen to 245 by the end of November. In similar fashion Japanese prices, taking the Bank c if Japan's index, reached a record high .of 321 in March, then started downward persistently, reaching 226 bv October. French prices went to .84 and Italian prices to 679 in April, both record highs, and closed the year somewhat lower. Prices the world over turned downward this year. (4) - Our foreign trade has never .;hown such expansion in values nor undergone such rapid changes of position. . The excess of merchandise exports has fluctuated irregularly, despite many predictions that the United States would soon turn definitely to an excess of imports. Our excess exports .reached $315,000,000 in May, higher than any month in a year then fell to $77,000,000 by June, held low during the summer, and rose to $417,POO.OOO in October as the seasonal cotton and grain movements began despite the argument tliat depreciated exchange would stimulate imports, our lotal 'merchandise imports reached their record high of $533,000,000 in "une: then began a marked fall every
(HNS exports nave moveu lrreguiariy, hing a hish of $820,000,000 in 'h, the highest for any month exJune' last year,' and falling to k.000,000 in August, but exports held remarkably high all year. (5 Foreign exchanged moved erratically at New York during the year, the pound sterling falling to the extraI .liars
1 --
100 tL Ijt- 20 Im ustJ ials 11 go 1 - - - Crf l t, o sot d V - : CO I I ' i 1 I I I 1 I ' 1 I I I 11 til I 11 II J " A " Mi J J A s P ' 3 A J V" g O P
' L V J V
ordinarily low figure of $3.18 on Feb. 4,, rebounding to $4.06 by April 5, and closing the year around $3.50. The relative steadiness -of sterling during the latter part of the year, when many had predicted that the seasonal decline would pun it down sharply, is explained partly by the easing of money, the fact that her Imports of cotton have been much lower than ordinary this year, and ber trade balance during November was in an unusually strong position for that reason. Continental exchanges have moved most of the time with sterling and have weakened in relation to it. The drop in Central European exchanges and the Russian ruble, frequently almost to the vanishing point, has of course been an outstanding feature of the year. Argentina maintained a premium here during a part of the year, and during the first six months got $90,000,000 of gold from us. She lost her premium during June, however, and had fallen to a discount of about 20 percent by the end of the year. Brazilian exchange, hard hit by the drop in coffee, broke its long level at a 20 percent discount during July, and by the end of the year was at a 50 percent discount. The Japanese yen, although below par in the spring, went to a premium in May and held it till near the end of the year, when it dropped again to a slight discount. Next to Argentina, Japan got more gold from us than any other country. The -whole Far Eastern crisis has weakened their exchanges greatly despite the strong position earlier in the year, and they have . been . making. . new lows along' with the unprecedented drop in silver. The Indian rupee dropped from 45
cents early In the year to 25 cents near its close, or to about 20 percent below the pre-war price. The Shanghai tael, which moves directly with silrer, stood at around $1.60 at the beginning of year, but slumped off with no significant recoveries to below 75 cents by the end of the year. Silver, after making a high of $1.37 per ounce on Jan. 11, had dropped to the low of the year at 59 4 cents by Dec. 10. Canadian exchange opened the year at a 7 percent discount and has held at a discount all year. By June her discount was 13 percent, but during the remainder of summer and until November it held remarkably steady around a 9 percent discount. The sharp downward turn in Canadian, exchange . at the end of the year to a discount of 16 percent is explained by the cutting off of her wheat shipments, navigation having closed on Dec. 12. (6) The return of the railroads to nMtrafA nAfitml rn Marfh 1 frkllrtwirifr the passage of the Transportation Act on Feb. 28. was an outstanding event The Railroad Labor Board on July 20 awarded wage increases amounting to over $600,000,000 per year, but the Commerce Commission on July 31 allowed rate advances which were computed to enlarge railroad revenues by $1,500,000,000. Thus the outlook was more hopeful than in some time; but optimism was tempered by the somewhat disappointing net earnings under the new rates and the prospective falling off in traffic. (7) The stock market showed violent breaks and widespread demoralzation during January and February. A revival of speculation was attempted in March, during which many important issues recovered quickly much of what they had lost in the decline that began in November, 1919. After early spring, however, stocks lost ground heavily, except for a few speculative flurries, and December marked the lowest level of .the year and brought prices back to where they were at the start of 1919. Rails enjoyed a fair recovery during the last half of the year, but suffered with the industrials at the very end. (8) The trend of bond prices was distinctly downward during the first five months just as it had been during all of 1919; it then held level until near the end of summer, when it moved upward strongly. Apparently the long depression in bond prices had finally ended. A reaction set in during October, however, and before the end of the year prices had lost a good share of all their early fall recovery. Fourth 4li Liberty bonds, for example, despite their unquestioned security, made their high at 93 early in the year, but then fell to 82 and closed the year near the lower level. (9) The Federal Reserve system began the year with its reserve ratio standing at 45 and closed the year at 45 r;g. These figures represented,
Price of Stocks and Bonds on the New York Exchange Weekly Quotations, 1919 and 1920
-
RICHMOND PALLADIUM AND
The World's Financial Outlook For 1921 Influences Which Will Shape the Course of Events in the Coming Twelvemonth and How They Are Likely to Operate - ; , With Us and With the World at Large
What happens in the financial and business world during 1921 will be the resultant of, first, the interaction of a number of powerful economic forces operating on a world-wide basis; "second, the kind of management, political and financial, we and the other nations give our affairs; and, third, the unforeseenable and uncontrollable elements of chance. Predictions as to the result naturally are difficult and hazardous, but it is possible to outline the main influences at work and to suggest some of the outstanding probabilities. During six year's of unprecedented war the world suffered, of course, a staggering economic los3. All the countries Involved financed the war to a large extent by Inflation of currency and credit. Coming out of a slight post-armistice slump, a tremendous wave of speculation in commodities and securities was added to the wartime Inflation, prices advancing to unheard-of levels. The past year has seen this boom burst. Drastic liquidation is under way and attention centers on its probable duration. Adverse Factors. One powerful and adverse factor which must be faced-during the coming year is the economic prostration prevailing throughout the whole Far East. Japan is overloaded with goods the price of which have fallen to but a fraction of their cost, the country's large shipping and shipbuilding industry is .caught in a shipping slump tho, like of which has not been seen for years and the duration of which will probably be prolonged, while the loss of foreign markets gained during the war has resulted in a disastrous excess of imports. In India and China conditions are much the same. The price of their exportable articles and the demand for them have fallen away until the former offers but a poor return for the effort of production and the latter is almost non-existent. In both these countries, furthermore, harvests are failures and the inhabitants are starving in appalling numbers. The effect on our own prosperity of the depression in the Far East will be more apparent when it is recalled that not only do these regions normally take large quantities of our goods, such as cotton, cotton goods, kerosene, steel, copper, and machinery, but kthey also are normally one of Europe's i however, the high points of the year, and in between considerable fluctuations occurred, with the low of 42.2 reached on May 14. During the latter part of the Bummer the reserve ratifc fell week by week from 44.4 percent on July 23 to 42.5 percent, on Sept. 3, only 0.3 percent above the minimum of the year. Combined note and deposit liabilities increased between these dates from $4,804,000,000 to a maximum up to then for the year of $4,978,000,000. Successive advances in the discount rate were made. The Federal Reserve Banks of New York, which sets the pace for the others, at the very beginning of the year increased its discount rate from 4 to 4 percent for best commercial paper. Later in January this rate was again increased to 6 percent, and in June to 7 percent, where it has held ever since. Federal Reserve Bank notes in circulation reached their low of the year at $2,844,000,000 on Jan. 23, while the total reserve stood at $8,088,000,000. But at the peak of crop-moving period, notes in circulation were expanded to $3,356,000,000 on Oct. 22, the highest for the year, with total reserves $2,158,000,000, thus illustrating again the flexibility of the system at a time when money is most in demand seasonally. Interbank borrowings that week rose to $276,000,000 against $98,000.000, June 18, when the last big swing began, and $110,000,000, on Jan. 3. -By Dec. 18 they had fallen to $118,000,000. By Nov. 19 note circulation got down to $3,307,000,000, although it has been expended since. (101) Tightness of money was accentuated during April the world over. About the middle of that month the Bank of England put its minimum up from 6 percent to 7; the Bank of France advanced its discount rate from 5 percent, which had been effective since August, 1914, to 6 percent; the Bank of Belgium increased its discount rate from 4 to 54 percent, and the Bank of Bombay from 7 to 8. These rates remained in force to the end of the year. (11) Our gold and silver shipments early In the year maintained a heavy excess of exports, due to large exports to the Far East and Argentina, but we then changed to a heavy excess of im-' ports, and shipments have varied widely. Altogether the first 11 months of Dollars 110 100 90 60 TO 6O 19 2 0
SUN - TELEGRAM, RICHMOND.
best markets. Their condition thus affects Europe's prosperity: directly, and so our own indirectly. For example, the Far East is one of the chief markets for Europe's cotton cloths,' so that when the Eastern slump came last spring, one of the first events was cancellation of English textile contracts. As a result the whole cotton cloth industry was thrown Into a depression, with a corresponding reaction on our own cotton market. The most discouraging feature of the Far Eastern situation is that no speedy revival is in sight. Turning to South America, we find a picture of another collapsed boom. Here is a great raw material producing continent, the demand for whose products has disappeared, whose exchanges have fallen into heavy depreciations, and whose merchants have taken such severe losses on precipitous tumbles in the value of commodities that they can, for the time, no longer meet their obligations. Argentina's position doubtless will improve when another wheat crop is to be sold to Europe, but even then the proceeds will be spent but sparingly for the purchase of our goods, since a substantial part must be devoted to paying off old debts. In exporting our manufactures to all these extractive countries, furthermore, our merchants will suffer from the competition of European) manufacturers who are aided by low production costs and a relatively favorable exchange position. Of our other great foreign markets Europe remains. She must take our cotton and must take our grain, and she has made progress toward the rehablitation of her factories. Still, she is caught in the same world-wide wave of depression and her factories, too, are partly idle and great numbers of her workers are unemployed British mills now have greater stocks of cotton on hand than before the war, while the demand for the manufactured product is in abeyance. Besides, Europe must struggle with depreciated currencies, unbalanced budgets, unsettling exchange fluctuations, a shaken credit structure, and serious political uncertainties. The war, after all, was a grave economic setback for Europe, and it is probable that she, will go on short rations during the period of rehabilitation. Meanwhile her purchas 1 1920 show excess imports of $67,000, 000 of gold against an excess of exports last year of $258,000,000. Our excess of silver exports for the same period was $24,000,000, against $129,000,000 last year. (12) Silver prices here and in London, in sympathy with the Far Eastern collapse, and despite heavy declines in production have moved from record high to nearly the pre-war levels. But silver at London sold at 89 V pence per ounce on Feb. 11 and fell as low as 38 on Dec. 10, while foreign silver fell as low as 59 U cents here on Dec. 10, against the year's high of $1.37 on Jan. 11. (13) A movement for lower retail prices began as spring ended, and, given strength by a firm halt in purchasing by the public as an embitered protest to high prices, grew finally to to large proportions. (14) Strikes among workers, particularly during the first part of the year, checked production; the most noteworthy was the "outlaw" railroad strike. . (15) Government control over wheat and the guarantee of a minimum price closed on June 1, and trading in wheat futures was resumed on July 15. (15) The 1920 crops, having been planted when prices were high and while growers had hopes of heavy demand, ran extraordinarily heavy in the main. Our cotton crop yieded 12,987,000 bales, against 11,420,000 last year. Wheat yielded 790,000,000 bushels, against 934,000,000 last year, but the season's crop was high as compared
The Commodity Markets Events of the Past Year, the Present Situation and Outlook for the Future
The 1920 crop year began buoyantly with high prices and prospects for a heavy demand of cereals, thus encouraging large sowings, but ended in gloom, with prices erratically tumbling toward levels not known duirng the war. Government control over wheat and the guaranteed minimum price ended June 1, and trading in wheat fu tures was resumed July 15, and, although there is no logical connection curiously enough the break in the The farmers' attempt to hold wheat prices up by "holding' 'their stocks on the farms has not been particularly successful. Fifty-seven million bushels of Canadian wheat have come on to our markets this year. Russia before the war our principal competitor, was again out of the market and this wheat market began shortly afterward, country sent enormous quantities of wheat and flour to Europe. The exhaustion of Russia, failure of last year's Austrian crop, and India's food shortage all helped our wheat market early in the year. The outlook at present, however, is not particularly bright for the man who wants to sell. The world's estimated production this year will reach 2,451,000,000 bushels, or 100,000,000 bushels higher than last year, and higher than before the war for the same countries. The great consuming counrties are depressed, and consumption will be smaller. Our own crop, to be sure, stands at 790,000,000 bushels, against last year's high of 940,000,000, but even so is still above normal. Australia, on the othcT hand has 144,000,000 bushels this year, against 44,000,000 last year; Canada 289,000,000, against 193,000,000 last year, and British India 377,00,000 bushels, against 280,000,000 last year. Discouraging as it has been to those who planted with high hopes, these factors have helped to push cash wheat prices down from $3.25 per bushel on May 14 to around $1.75 at the close of the year. 1920s Bumper Corn Crop. Corn is the "king" of all our crops both in value and quantity, although consumed largely at home and exported in the form of meat and meat products, and 1920 marks a yield of 3,232,000,000 bushels, easily a record high. The year in corn resembles roughly the year in wheat, looking at both from the grower's standpoint. It began well, and ended relatively badly. The farmer's efforts at holding corn
IND FRIDAY, DEC. 31, 19
Li ing power will be curtailed, and since the dollar stands at the highest premimum in the world, there will be every incentive for her to. buy elsewhere whenever possible. In - Europe, too, signs of revival are wanting as yet; In fact, the best British opinion expects the revival to appear here first. In our own country the liquidation in the stock 'market has not yet ceased, and in previous business cycles the period of depression usually has lasted from six to en months after the low point in stocks had been reached. Some commodities, and particularly raw materials, are back to pre-war levels, and some are even below the probable cost of reproduction; but taking goods as a whole, considerable further readustment still remains to be made. Prices of finished goods, and especially retail prices, . still need to be brought into line with those of raw materials. Much additional bearish news is also in prospect; reports of further falls in prices will Appear, more dividends will be passed, and large numbers of business failures probably will occur after accounts have been closed at the end of the year. Reductions of purchasing power are also in prospect. Unemployment in the textile and other industrise will have its effect this spring, while the fall trade will suffer because farmers are so heavily in debt to their country
banks that their next crop will be lying of business activity might be exmortgaged when sown. pected. But buying probably will be Tax problems, too, will bear on the cautious and business probably will be situation. The government, by some j conducted on a hand-to-mouth basis means or other, is planning to take $4,-1 for some time. 000,000,000 out of busines, and uncer-j The prospect, disregarding immedltainty as to the method to be adopted ate losses, is not, however, a gloomy and the actual withdrawal of such a I one. Even in times of depression a great sum itself will be unsettling in- j very considerable volume of business
fluences in a year of shrunken profits and general embarrassment. One other important obstacle to early revival exists, that is high money rates. To be sure, the peak of the strain seems to have been passed, and the Federal Reserve system deserves great praise for getting the country by this point without something approaching a panic. The relaxation in rates, however, is very slight so far and months will be required to bring really cheap money. Two chief retarding forces are operating, one the locking up of credit in country banks and in loans against government war with normal. Corn production reached 3.232,000,000 bushels, easily the u i i .... nisuca.. n icvu.u. Ua,.CJ, potatoes, and hay all ran high. Tobacco production reached a record high of 1,508,000,000 pounds, and rice more than doubled its pre-war rate, reaching 54,000,000 bushels. (17) Pig iron production fell during the spring, as transportation was tied up, but gained great headway during the later part of summer and early fall, holding well over the 1911-14 average throughout the year. Unfilled orders of independents, and even of the Steel Corporation, fell off heavily during the latter part of the year. By the end of the year independents had seal - ed virtually all of their prices down to Steel Corporation, that is, Industrial Board levels. (18) Bituminous coal exports, which have never been particularly significant excepting those to Canada, made a new high record every month begining with June and running through October. During the first quarter this year we exported a monthly average of 1,306,000 long tons, about the 191114 average, but by October bituminous coal exports reached 4,580,000 tons, of which nearly 2,000.000 went to Europe. (19) A severe depression has fallen on ocean shipping Charter rates have, fallen back to pre-war levels, or by three-quarters since the first of the year, while ship values have fallen from $200 deadweight-ton level to $80 and $100. Tankers alone are in demand. th were somewhat more successful than those at holding wheat, and helped him somewhat in maintaining big prices earlier in the year. But the farmers could join this campaign wholeheartedly because it was really more profitable for them to feed corn freely to hoes and cattle. Hogs at Chicago: wrf EPllin at $15 to S1fi ner hundred pounds at the outset, as a result of the enormous export business in lard and meats. This gave corn a feeding value of between $1.5.0 and $1.60. Corn prices reached $2.31 on May 15, but fell well under a dollar by the close of the year. The price of hogs also fell heavily. The world's 1920-21 cane and beet S40 800 80 t0 180 140 100 1918 1914
i i i i i i i j j rr 1 u uo
L ( 1 : I j L I - to
bonds; the other, the government's great floating debt and its heavy tax requirements. The Favorable Influences. Turning to the more favorable factors, the chief one is the accumulated demand for new buildings. While perhaps somewhat exaggerated and somewhat alleviated by renovations and alterations of old properties, a real
shortage undeniably exists. If -prices; of building materials and building labor are reduced sufficiently, this demand should come into play and may act as a strong force for more active trade. Similarly, the accumulated demand for railroad equipment should help the steel industry, but this demand is now admitted by the trade to have been far too optimistically estimated. A certain amount of encouragement may also be derived from the fact that the prices of several important raw materials are back to a pre-war basis; and there can be no doubt that our greatly Improved banking system will be a stabilizing influence. Finally, the steadfast refusal of our banks to lend artificial support to commodities and securities argues for a very healthful basic situation. Summing up the outlook, then, It seems unreasonable to expect an early and vigorous revival. In the imme diate future further liquidation is prob ably in prospect. By spring some ; stabilization of commodity prices I should be accomplished and a mild ralamounting to as much as 85 percent of that in boom periods goes on. The resources of our country are too great and our institutions are too sound to permit thoughts of anything like disaster. What we have to accept is the probability that margins of profit during the coming year will be small and that for the time being we have seen the end of flush times. One of the most hopeful features of present situation, it may be reiterated, is that liquqidation promises to be so thorough that when the real revival finally comes it will be both vigerous and sustained. sugar crop will go 1,775,000 tons higher than last year s, an increase of 11.5 percent. loe prospeci is inai uuiu cane and beet sugar will show heavy increases over last year. While this ! year's crop does not promise a heavy yield as 1913-14's high, when Russia and Central Europe were producing beet sugar heavily, the superior cane sugar will represent 74 percent of the total this year, against only 53 percent before the war. The abundance of sugar this year, outside of Europe, does not augur high prices for next year. Raw Cuban sugar, duty paid at New York, sold as high as 23.57 cents on May 19 this year, but closed the year at about 4.63 cents per pound, at j most down to the 1910-14 average of 4.03 cents Boom Year for Petroleum. No other of our staple commodities has so well withstood the slackening of industrial activity as crude petroleum. The commodity has prospered, while most others have given way, and Crops of the Com. Bushels 1920. .3,232.367,000 1919. .2.917.450,000 1918. .3,582.814,000 1017 3 065.233.000 Wheat. Bushels 789.878.000 934 265,000 917.100.000 636.655.000
Oat. Bushls 1.524. 053. 0Q0 1,248.31 0.000 1.538.359'000 1.592.740.000 1.251.992.000 1.549.039.000 1,141.060.000 1.121.76S.OOO 1.418.377.000 922.29S.000 1.186.341,000 1.007,129.000 807,15S,i0 751,443,000 964,904.522 953,216.197 894.595.562 784.09t.199 987.842,712 736,808.724 809,125,989 796.177.713 730,906,643
mis. .2. 583. 241.000 639,886.000 j 1915. .2.994.793.000 1.025. soi.000 1914. .2.672.804.000 891,017.000 1913. .2,446,988,000 1912. .3.124.746,000 1911 . .2,531.488,000 1910. .2.886,260,000 1909. .2 552.190.000 1905. -.2.668.651.000 1907. .2.592.::20.000 1906. .2.927.416.091 1905. .2.707.993.540 1904. .2,467,430.934 1903. .2,244.176,925 J902. .2,523,648,312 1901 . .1.522,519,891 1900. .2.105,102,516 1899. .2.078,143,933 1898. .1.924,184.660 763.380.000 730,267.000 621.338.000 635,121.000 683.350.000 664.602.000 634,087,000 735,260.907 692,979.486 552.399.517 637.821.833 670.063.008 748,460.218 522. 229.505 547,303.846 675,148,703 Kxcluiling' linters. For other years Bank Clearings in 1920 1919 Dec f 35.000.000.000$ 42.3r.7.544.20S$ Nov. 36,005.184,248 39,309,900,206 Oct. 1S."768.S79,046 41.829.y95.356 i eP35.991.044.059 34.363.449.615 37.485,488,920 38.355.221.497 36.689.664.756 39.584,969.015 4 1.240.000.536 33.226.993.772 41,599.259,116 35.607.338,896 34,708.905,706 37,513,314.549 34.254.611,450 33.196.526.667 30,610.735,295 30.092.846.785 25.808.147.986 32.419.909.288 Auk. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Tol. 44S. 311, 854, 575 417 09,796,477
fDecember figures estimated. 'Largest on record In history of country-.
Wholesale Prices in the United States, 1913-1920 Base (100) 1913 Monthly Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
I : Cloth eat clcti.lr . ml aaA UffrtlBe f 4 htali and atal proAoata J j Loabsr, kulicl&e Materials f I Tatal, all croup ' j t I 11
1915 1918 1OT 1518
petroleum prices closed the year
high levels, 241 percent above the pre war average. . Beginning with earlj summer it seemed that ' each' new month would make a new record fo domestic production, and October'i production went still higher to $9,838, 000 barrels, a growth from 33,980,001 for January and the pre-war averag of 19,220,000 barrels. Since June ou total production plus imports has es ceeded our total consumption, al though by only a narrow margin! Stocks have increased slightly fronl the beginning of the year and from pre-war, but not significantly. Ou monthly pre-war Imports of petroleum averaged 750.000 barrels, bad jumped to 6.290,000 by January this year, and in October stood at 11,360,000 barrels exports this year have almost doubled but even so, still represent no signific ant quantity, the high month being Od tober's shipment of 750,000 barrel H Petroleum probably eventually wil suffer in sympathy with other com modtities, but has as yet shown bu slight signs of weakening Cotton's Wild Year. The 1920 cotton situation was char acterized by extraordinary fluctua tions in price, production estimates and consumption, thus bringing prob aDiy neavier gains and losses than another crop. The year ended critically The textile industry, which had beeri Inordinately prosperous during 1913 ana early in 1920, reached extraordin ary high levels, was the first to suffer and its collapse the world over, begin ning in the spring, was one of the firs signs of recession. Index number.from Great Britain, France, Italy - j Sweden, Japan, and our own count r show that textile prices everywhere were much higher than other groups j It is not so curious then to find tha they have been the hardest hit sincd spring. The Economist index of Brit ish prices shows that textile prices there stood as high as 368 percenn aDove 1913 during last March, but by the end of November they were dowiJ to 158. Strictly from the productive stand point and disregarding the general business situation, the world's pried lor cotton is influenced primarily by what this country produces. We pro duce one-half of the world's total and our cotton is the best for textiles wnen our preliminary estimate of July 1 made it appear that the crod would be only 11,450,000 bales. Bpee ulators were able to push raw cotton prices to record heights. But latterl estimates revised this figure upward until by Dec. 1 it was found our croH had yielded 12,987,000 bales, an In crease of more than 1,500,000 bales This situation and the general world crisis explain why cotton rose to a new! high of 43.75 cents on July 22, theri fell to a low of 14 cents as the year! drew to a close. Cotton consumption had fallen heavily because the world cannot pay for cloths. Even consump tion in the United States fell fronJ 592,000 bales in January to 382.000l during November, a truly extraordin ary decline. Increased Coal Output. The widespread need for coal has been so acute and production here anq strikes and transportation difficulties abroad has been so often reduced by that it is particularly gratifying tcJ find that the world s bituminous coal output turned for the better duringn the third quarter. Improvement was shown in the United States, Grea Britain, Germany, France and Belgium the five big producing countries. Eu rope, of course, needs coal particular ly, and was thrown into a more string ent need this fall when Great Britain's coal miners struck, greatly reducing her production and exportable surplus (Continued on Page Eleven) United States Barley. Bushels 202.024.000 165.719.000 256.375.000 211,759.000 180.927.000 228,851.000 194.953.000 178.189.000 223.824.000 160.240.000 173.832,000 173,321.000 166.756.000 153,318,000 178.916,484 136.631.020 139.748,958 131.S61.391 134,954.023 109.933.904 68.925.833 73.381,563 65,792,257 Bye. Cotton. Bushels Bales 69.318.000 12.987.000 88, 478,00 12.443.180 89.103.000 11.360.000 1 1.865.000 12,737.000 12.862,000 15.136.000 14.552.000 14.104.000 16.101.000 12.075.000 10.513.000 13,817.000 11.441.000 13.540.000 11.234,000 13,654.000 10.002.000 10.674.000 10.768.000 10.339.000 9.423.000 11.256,000 62,933.000 47,383.000 64.050.000 42.778.000 41.381.000 35.664.000 33,119.000 34,897.000 29.520.000 31.851.000 31.506.000 33.374.833 28,485.932 27.241.515 29.363.416 33.630.59.1 30.344.800 23,995.927 23,961,741 25,657,522 figures represent commercial crops. the United States 1918 1917 1918 30.810,729,7 41$ 29,349,359.287 16.530,548.755$ 27,293.700.999 229.438.014 26.814,813.731 32.064,945,921 28,264,308,306 24.029.3S6.466 25.093.230,233 25.663.883.738 26.736.347,702 26.318.510,561 25.013,249.100 24.794.414.566 21.630,495.636 25,621,505.405 :5.7!6.597,413 26,37 384.533 22.854.901.746 19.814,028.024 19.368.114.947 20,653,997.436 20,720.039.628 2S.158j320.021 28,642,477,427 27,318.479.871 28,266.379.033 26,484,009.255 26 $80,944,351 22 255.063,757 26.530,712.415 19.378,048,130 20.774.243.671 18,292,7M,969 20,138,687.544 332,350,688,690 306.926,913,482 268,828,672,287 Far mvit 840 800 60 Ml 1929