Rensselaer Republican, Volume 27, Number 18, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 2 January 1896 — OUTLOOK FOE WHEAT [ARTICLE]

OUTLOOK FOE WHEAT

CROP OF THE UN If ED STATES . UNDERESTIMATED. Conservative Estimate of the World's Production 2,416 000,000 Bualicif— Prospect Slightly Bullish—Philadelphia's Street Car Strike Settled. May Be 473,000,000 Bushels. ~A* the jmr P r ffirisssft». .prr-ssiou continues to grow, so far as the wheat crop in the United States is concerned, that it has been materially underestimated. According to Bradstreet's the official figures as to the size of tho crop, or the interpretations of earlier official wheat drop reports, placed the total probablo outturn at about 390,000,000 bushels. At the present time trade estimates in very few, if’any, instances put the probable aggregate yield at less than 400,000,000 bushels —and the end is probably not yet, in the matter of revised figures. This, in view of .comparatively moderate exports of wheat and ffour thus far during the cereal year, continues to perpetuate the dominance of bear influences in the world’s wheat markets., Some of our optimistic foreign friends are even now inclined to think the wheat Crop’ here may amount to 473,000,000 bushels, as against 520,000,000 bushels last year. Canada comes out with,an estimated increase of about 10,000,000 bushels, and Aygentina is now expected i to show 80,000,000 bushels, although only a month or two ago 60TW0,000- bushels was accounted a Itigh estimate, the output Inst, year having been rather under 58,000,000 bushels. As against this, however, it is becoming probable that Australia is likely to be an importer rather than an exporter Of wheat. In fact, she has already begun to import wheat The Crop in Russia. In Russia, a most important source of supply, the minister of agriculture estimates the crop of the Ruroßean provinces at 122,000,000 bushels less than last year;,but this is deemed too low,, “as theofficial estimates usually are,” and it is generally Supposed that the production of Russia and Poland together will not be more'than 88,000,000 bushels less than last year. Russia generally has a larger surplus from previous crops, and it is this reserve which will enable her to keep the balance between exporting and importing countries. One of the more conservative estimates of the world’s production of wheat in 1593 places it at 2,410,000,000 bushels, as contrasted with 2,500,000,000 bushels in 1804. a falling off of about 144,000,000,000 bushels, the significance of which is gathered from the fact that-the general consensus of opinion as to the approximate total- world’s, annual consumption of wheat is about 2,400,000,000 bushels. With a production this year of only 2,410,000,000 bushels of wheat iu the face of estimated requirements amounting to 2,400,000,000 bushels, stocks of wheat car tied over from the outturn of 1894 aud

prior thereto gather special significance, or would do so if they could be known wit it n«y’ degree of accuracy. The follovqing is Becrbohuv’s estimate of the surpluses which the chief exporters will have to spare from this year’s crops, in comparison with last year: Estimate. Actual. Exporters. 1595-G, qrs. 1894-4, qrs. United States and Canada 15,000,000 18,500,000 Russia* 13,000,000 16,500,000 Roumania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Servia.... 7,000,000 4,750,000 Austria-Hungary 500,000 India aud Persia. 3,250,000 2,300,000 Algeria, Tunis, aud Egypt.... 1,250,000 1,250,000

Chili and Uru- , ] guay 500,000 (500,000 ! Australasia .... 500,000 900.000 ! Argentina 5,000,000 5,750,000 ! Total surplurTT^tS^OO^OO. 50,500,000 Total surplus,bu.3B4,ooo,ooo -00,400,000 | This estimate was formed when' the i Argentine production was expected to be, not rnucli, if anything, over that of last year; but should it amount to 80,000,000 bushels, then one may take the available surplus for the cm-reut year to be about 400,000,000 bushels. Great Britain requires to import 200,000,000 bushels, France about 20,000,000 bushels, Belgium, Germany and Holland together about 86,000,000 bushels, Italy about 28,000,000 bushels, the rest of Europe about 44,000.000 bushels, and the West Indies, China, Brazil, etc., about 25,000,000 bushels—in all, say 400,000,000. bushels, against a probable surplus -on the year's crops of 40,000,000 bushels. \ This is altdgetHor\too close a fit and calls for some examination as to probable stocks of wheat 'carried over from the prececfing crop year. There were, and probably are, large wheat reserves in Russia which enabled that country to export so freely during the fall and winter, while in India and Australia reserves are

and have undoubtedly been -relatively small. » 1 - Prices T-ikely to Go Up. The world’s available stocks of wheat, those in sight, on land and,afloat, are not smaller this year than they were last, notwithstanding the heavy decline in production. Either the invisible supplies must be smaller than customary (except in Russia, of course, whieff are believed to be large), or there is likely to be, ns is generally the cnse. more than “enough to gq around.” Quite certain is it, however, that 1893-96 is likely to cat well into the world’s old and new cereal stocks of wheat, and that the following cereJfl year, at least, may witness a considerable price stimulus to tho cultivation of the cereal. This is not quite as bullish a view of

the situation as many producers and traders, may have been waiting for during tho last few years of depression, but it is a literal interpretation of the be*t available statistics.