Jasper County Democrat, Volume 12, Number 51, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 9 October 1909 — ESTIMATING THE WHEAT. [ARTICLE]

ESTIMATING THE WHEAT.

Probabilities of the Outcome of • Very Interesting Season. The wheat seasou Marts with smaller reserves even than in the famous year 1897, when low supplies of old wheat, followed by a 30 per cent shortage In the Eurci>ean crop and a 100,000,000 bushel increase in our own, had some remarkable financial results. This means a sure and quick market for the new crop. It is Impossible as yet to estimate the probable foreign wheat harvest of 1909; latest advices indicate that, while the crop in France, England and Russia will be sufficient, Germany and the Danube states have fared badly, so that the total European crop will hardly match the abundant yield of 1905 and 1906. The obvious meaning of such a situation Is that Europe must have such of our wheat surplus as the American market can spare and must pay fair prices for it. Had the winter wheat estimate of Aug. 14 confirmed the 400,000,000 bushel prediction current a few weeks before, instead of raising the calculation to 432.000,000, and had the spring wheat promise been in any way seriously impaired the country would scarcely have escaped a later repetition of the Chicago speculation of last May and our export trade would have been greatly restricted. But 32,000,000 extra bushels make a considerable dlf. ference. It still remains to see what happens to our spring wheat crop and to foreign crops in the two 'remaining months. But as matters stand, however, there are several reasonable inferences: First, the American farmer will sell .an abundant wheat crop at highly remunerative prices; second, those prices are not likely to go again to the “famine figure,” which will Impose hardship on consumers; third, the railways will have the average amount of wheat to transport to market; fourth, our export of wheat and flour, which in the past twelve months was cut down 50.000,000 bushels from the year before and 31,000,000 from two years ago. should be increased by twenty-flve to forty millions, thereby helping our market for international exchange and at the same time easing the strain on Europe’s wheat trade.