Jasper County Democrat, Volume 6, Number 23, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 12 September 1903 — POLITICS OF THE DAY [ARTICLE+ILLUSTRATION]

POLITICS OF THE DAY

Our “Rampant Prosperity." It now begins to look as If “Republican luck” was going to desert the G. O. P. Shrewd political observers of both parties recognize the fact that the Republican party has been as fortunate In its defeats as in Its victories. All well-informed and fair-minded men know that the panic of 1893 and the succeeding years of depression would have occurred, no matter who had been elected President in 1892. The Harrison administration was put to its wits’ end to conceal treasury deficits and stave off a bond Isriie until Cleveland was inaugurated. In fact the plates for a new issue of bonds .were ready before Harrison left the White House. The 1893 panic was partly, due to the Republican spendthrifts who, before 1893, had “blown in” all of the big surplus left by Cleveland In 1888. It would have been fortunate for the Democrats had they lost in 1892. But the Republicans have overstayed their time and are almost certain to have to take their own medicine next year. They are doing their best to prevent a .business collapse before next year and are whistling hard to keep up their courage. But many recognlzze that the Jig is up with them. This idea Is beginning to find expression in Republican papers. One of the oldest and staunchest of them, the Chicago Journal, said, a few days- ago, that “The belief is strong that the tide of prosperity is turning, or Is about to turn.”

The Government bulletins and reports, of course, tell us at length all about the prosperity items, but say little about the gloomy items which are getting more numerous from day to day. Thus the Bureau of Statistics Bulletin of Aug. 8 shows up the favorable features of our internal commerce, says that “the current year compares favorably with the corresponding period in 1902 or 1901,” and then hastens to say that “there is no evidence of a general recession in commercial activities, corresponding to the extraordinary shrinkage in speculative values.” The American Economist, the organ of the Protective Tariff League, is working harder than ever to demonstrate on* paper that prosperity is still here. Some of the headlines in its issue of Aug. 21 are: “Prosperity Rampant;” “General Prosperity Untouched;" “The Facts of Prosperity;” “Significant Figures; Our Commercial Expansion Under Protective Tariffs;’’ “Labor’s Prosperity.” When the Republican papers aro asserting that “Prosperity is still here,” and are trying to prove it by publishing statistics showing that Pennsylvania’s iron and steel industry paid twice as much in wages in 1902 as in 1896; that our imports were greater last year than ever before; that our postoffice receipts were higher than ever last year; and other favorable statistics which they tell us are reliable barometers of trade; while we are being assured that our crop prospects are again good, and that the railroads are threatened with another “car famine;" and while the Secretary of Agriculture is telling us that everything is lovely with the farmers, who are simply worrying about how and where to invest their rapidly accumulating profits, it may be well to mention some of the signs that point in the opposite direction. Here are a few of them: 1. Great depression in Wall street. Stocks have shrunk from 20 to ICO points during the last year, the average shrinkage being about 30 per cent. Financial experts do not agree with Republican politicians that there is no connection between Wall street and the rest of the country. They know that business Is done mainly upon a credit basis, and that Wall street is the heart of the credit system. Hence when the heart Is disordered and diseased the whole system is deranged and debilitated. Thus, Mr. Cuthbert Mills, for many years the financial expert of the New York Tribune, the leading Republican paper In the country, said in its Issue of Aug. 9: “The country is beginning to wake up to what is liable to happen in mercantile and industrial affairs. There Is less boasting than was recently heard about the country not being concerned with the gambling operations of Wall street. These operations, when they are on such a scale as we see them now, are the sign and forerunner of a business contraction, in production and prices, which will put the country through much the same experience that Wall street has had. Good crops will mitigate this considerably, but will not prevent it. And It may be repeated what was said last week, that the merchant or manufacturer who is much spread out at this time, is In the same dangerous position as was the spread out Wall street man six months ago.” Hambleton & Company and other financial authorities have recently written in the same vein. 2. This Is a year of numerous and great strikes. History shows that the sequels to such years are years of depression and panic. The strike years of 1872. 1883 and 1892 are examples. By the middle ’of 1882 there were between 500 and 600 strikes on and the number increased later. The year 1893 saw a collapse in business and a financial crisis not equalled since 1837. Undoubtedly the 1893 panic owed much •f its severity to the flotation of num-

erous protected trusts with watered stocks and to the high trust prices and which followed the passage of the’ McKinley bill in 1890, with Its outrageous high duties. The 1904 depression Is likely to be as Bauch more severe than the 1893 one as the number, size, and power of trusts and the watering and kiting of stocks were greater following the Dingley than following the McKinley bill. 3. Iron and steel prices, which are considered the barometer of industry, are declining rapidly in spite of the efforts of the great and small steel trusts to regulate production and prices. Southern foundry No. 2 pig iron has declined from $lB to sl2 per ton; Bessemer pig, which sold at Pittsburg, Aug. 20, 1902, at $21.50, sold at $17.85, Aug. 19, 1903. Within a year steel billets have declined from s3l to $27; steel beams at tidewater from $2.25 to $1.73%; and steel bars from $2 to $1.70. Much of this decline has occurred within a few weeks.

4. The country's clearings or bank exchanges are declining. From $3,680,967,392, May 9th, 1901, they fell to $2,452,239,721, Jan. 3d, 1902, to $2,277,061,129, Jan. 3d, 1903, and to $1,969,306,927, Aug. 15th, 1903. 5. Fewer buildings are being erected. The monthly record kept by the Constructing News shows that building operations In 19 of the principal cities fell off 17 per cent for July, 1903, as compared with July, 1902. The decline is attributed to a stringency in the money market and the apprehension of what the future has in store. 6. Great land speculation, especially in the Northwest. Politictfl economists agree that the climax of what is called prosperity is marked by a great rise in land values. This rise for reasons which need not be explained here, marks the beginning of industrial depression. 7. Some of the minor signs of trouble ahead are: Closed cotton mills, throwing 500,000 out of work. Closed iron, woolen and other mills “to make repairs” and because of low prices. « Reduction of 50 cents per ton In price of buckwheat (steam) coal in Philadelphia, because of the shutting down of many Industrial plants. Recent heavy withdrawals from New York savings banks. Blowing out of over 600 coke oven* in Connellsville region, because of ovei supply. Reduction of 10 to 15 per cent in wages of many of the textile strikers in Philadelphia who three months ago struck for higher wages and shorter hours—and got neither. Decreased demand for high-grad* woolen and increased demand foi cheap, shoddy and cotton goods, show; Ing exhausted buying power of the people. Unparalleled immigration, greatly Increasing the number looking for jobs and thus prolonging strikes and insuring defeat and lower wages for workers.

In view of these facts, or portents of hard times, it is ithprobable that the Republicans, with all of their advantages from being in control of government and Industry, can stave off the Inevitable collapse until the election of 1904. The two great factors In their favor and that have prevented a collapse before now are a succession of good crops and a decrease In the value of money caused by J greatly increased output of gold. The stimulus to business from cheapening money, which, manifests Itself in advancing prices, artificial and deceptive though it be, is likely to continue. It can postpone but cannot prevent a depression in busipess. If our crops turn out much below the ordinary hard times may begin this fall. If they are above the ordinary the break, though it will begin soon, will not be severely felt until next year. BYRON W. HOLT. The Shell Worker’s Game.