Indianapolis Times, Indianapolis, Marion County, 30 September 1948 — Page 12
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_ THE INDIANAPOLIS TIMES _-
THURSDAY, SEPT. 30, 1048
1948 Hovsing Picture: Jitters or a Rainbow?
LE How Many Homes Do We Need?
Builders Fear Saturation by 1951-52; Other ‘Experts’ See Big Demand Until 1963
(First of two articles)
By 8. BURTON HEATH,
NEW YORK, Sept. 30—It may surprise a few million families— who are hunting desperately for a suitable home they can afford— | to learn that the building industry has a bad case of the jitters.
The industry is afraid that it
figures that it is going to meet up with hard times about 1951 or 1952, unless it can make a lot of us discontented with homes we
have, or can promote the scrapping of a lot of existing Ha and apartment buildings. This is very different that the accepted idea that we
| shall need at least a million new
homes a year, from now until 1958 or 1963, before every American family can have a decent roof over its head. The National Association of Real Estate Boards feels that 300,000 new homes a year, for 10 years, will take care of everybody very nicely. That makes the builders look like a bunch of pessimists.
How Long Will It Be?
The $64 question, of course, is (how long it will be before there will be enough decent homes for all Americans, with enough sur-, plus so that a family will dare move out of unsatisfactory quar-
sentative of building materials manufacturers,
'are informed estimates in nart,
NEA Staff Correspondent
is working itself out of a job. It
mous conflict with the estimate of the Producers’ Council, repre-
that 900,000-to-
families will be] on how}
many new formed from now on; many have no homes. | Each expert accepts the figures and factors that seem correct to} him—and comes out with a dif-} ferent figure than anybody else.|
1 million homes a year for three or four years will take care of the nation's needs. The layman is puzzled that socalled “experts” should differ so greatly in their figuring on what looks like a simple problem in mathematics. The suspicion fs’ voiced that the experts must be! letting their personal Interests
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affect their addition and subtraction. Figures Differ
The estimates differ largely because nobody knows what figures to add, what to subtract. Census Bureau figures, the starting point,
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and in part they are generalities. We have only spot checks ou uw many families are doubled up ted to the Congressmen, but the(and how many of them want to confusion can be judged from the |undouble; on how many are in estimates’ wide range. And, res— ——————— ® Wedding anniversaries! [though they do not tell the answer, they do make a layman ® States, capitals, and wonder why the builders should population] be worrying. . The F. W. Dodge "Corp., foremost gatherer of building statistics, believes we need 820,000 homes a year for 10 years. The National Housing Ageney suggests 1,260,000 a year, the American Federation of Labor 1,560,000 a year, and Charles Abrams, New York housing publicist, calls for 1,860,000 a year for 10 , The Twentieth Century d places the need at 1,133,000 a year for 15 years. Two other witnesses cited by the Committee estimate need for J and 1 million homes, re-
ters. There is no answer to that question in the estimates submit-
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spectively, for 15 years. GOP Estimate
Considering all these estimates, and the arguments behind them,! and the testimony of witnesses, the Committee's GOP majority, headed by Chairman Ralph A. Gamble of New York, recommended at least 1,250,000 new homes a year for 12 years. It suggested also that another 1,850,000 homes—a bit more than 150,000 a year—be added to replace older buildings that can be used but'ought to be torn down. The Committee's figures, plus those of the various experts it heard, present an almost unani-
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