Indianapolis Times, Indianapolis, Marion County, 25 August 1938 — Page 9

THURSDAY, AUG. 25,

S. Officials Unable

1938

To Estimate Cost of + Age Security by 1980 Many Uncertainties Cloud Attempts to. Predict

Plan’s Expense in Future, Actuary Says; r Urges Attention to Present. pi

~ By MARJORIE VAN DE WATER

Science (Copyright,

Service Writer 1938, by Science Service)

Staff

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25.—Government officials have no idea how much the Social Security old-age insurance will cost 40 years from now. Such estimates have been reported frequently. Despite intricate calculations, or perhaps because of them, Consulting Actuary W. R. Williamson of the Social Security Board confesses that: it is impossible now to predict the possible cost of the plan when 1980 rolls

around. :

First among the uncertainties is the number of men and women who will survive to the age of 65 in future years. The experience of insurance companies Mr. Williams does not wish to rely on in making his estimate,

‘because the insurance companies’®—

medical examinations and other factors make the situation of the life insurance holder different from that of the general population. A margin of safety for the insurance ' company in figuring death payments becomes just the opposite when the object is to figure life annuities.

War Would Upset Figures

New discoveries in medical science may reduce the death rate from oldage diseases. Such advances would add to the cost of old-age insurance. ~ Invention of new contraptions like “the automobile and airplane, on the

other hand, might increase the likelihood of accidental death, thus reducing the cost of old-age payments. War would entirely upset predictions of survival and would reduce costs of the plan. Another uncertainty- is the number of individuals covered by the plan. “There is as yet no clear evidence of the exact number of covered workers or approximate full-time jobs,” says Mr. Williamson in his report for the Social Security Bulletin. In connection with the framing of the Social Security Act, it was estimated that the annual covered payroll for 1937 would be in the neighborhood of $28,000,000, representing between 25,000,000 and 26,000,000 full-time jobs. So far, 40,000,000 benefit account numbers have been assigned, and it is estimated that wage reports received for the first six months of 1937 represent 32,000,000 persons for whom tax payments have been made by employers, Lag in Tax Collections "* “There is a recognized lag in tax collection,” comments Mr.. Williamson. “Even though such employ-

‘ment changes as are now developed were accurately recorded, one can

hardly believe that the tempo of the |.

period of 1937 and 1938 is indicative of the situation during succeeding decades.” “. Officials expect some movement between the covered and noncovered occupations. It is estimated -that at present only some 25,591,000 workers, out of the total of about 48,830,000 gainfully employed, are covered by the old-age plan. It may very well be that the future will see more and more housemaids deserting the kitchen for the factory ‘and small store keepers seeking employment in the chains where they will be eligible to old-age benefits. Officials trying to estimate how many will be included in the plan by 1980 have made guesses ranging from 35,000,000 to 75,000,000.

Limits May Be Changed

Of course the present boundaries. between the covered and excluded occupations may be shifted, too. Amendments to the act may bring agricultural or domestic workers under the plan or may change the age at which the payments. are started. A third uncertainty is the number of those who remain in employment beyond the 65-year age limit and thus delay the old-age payments. In making the early estimates for the social security plan, it ‘vas was thought that an average of two and a half years of delay in retirement could be assumed. But when the worker is sure of an income at the age of 65, his attitude and that of his employer may change and alter the whole picture. Opposed to this tendency would be any increase in health of older men or raising of the standards of living. Benefit payments are low. Part-time employment in the covered occupations adds yet another uncertainty to the estimation ~‘of. costs, for the benefits of such workers will be larger in proportioit

to their taxes than will those of |

Icng-term members of the-plan, Urges Attention to Present

Finally there are the less tangible and immeasurable political and economic influences that may force drastic changes in structure of the plan, Summing up all the difficulties, Mr. Williamson urges that we call off the whole attempt to evaluate future costs. A : “This major indefiniteness, therefore, must be accepted as inherent in any social insurance plan. . . . “This indeterminate quality of oldage insurance costs may itself he the strongest argument for shifting _ our attention from the problems. of 1980 to a more thoroughgoing consideration of the present needs. We cannot foretell the future, but we can see the necessities of the present. A shift in attention should be most rewarding.

: NOT “SPOON-PROOF” MARYVILLE, Cal, Aug. 25 (U.

P.) ~The city jail here was demon- |

strated not to be “spoon-proof” when two inmates with a single cheap teaspoon dug all the mortar out from between enough bricks to \ enable them to depart.

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| SACks Bros.

CITES 33,000 JOBS IN STATE CANNERIES

Indiana Leads Tomato Juice Output, Review Says.

Indiana’s 282 packing plants will employ 33,000. persons within a few weeks, the Indiana Employment Review said today. : The state leads in the production of tomato juice and second in production of tomato pulp, the Review said. Indiana also is first in output of canned pumpkin and squash, hominy and kidney beans, it said. Ranking second to California in the number of employees in the

industry, Indiana has canneries in 69 of its 92 counties.

10 CENTS A DRINK

CLEVELAND, Aug. 25 (U.P.)— Federal alcohol. agents discovered the city’s first pay-enter, three-stall speakeasy today. = Following the fumes of an odor familiar in their business they found an abandoned barn, where they said Edgar Young,

40, was selling alleged liquor from a five-gallon can for 10 cents on a pay-enter basis to 40 customers who were sipping it from broken glasses and tin cans.

AVIATION IS HELD BOON TO CROWTH

OF NORTHWEST

Much Work Remains to Be Done on Alaska Highway, Official Says.

‘WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 (U. PJ. —Acting Secretary of War Louis Johnson was back today from a

9000-mile aerial survey trip to Alaska, He was enthusiastic over

the part which he believes aviation |

will play in the economic development of the Northwest. Mr. Johnson surveyed possible routes for an Alaska highway, and inspected sites for possible: Army air bases in Alaska. He said that a great deal of engineering survey work remains to be done along the proposed coastal route of the new highway, due to the inaccuracy of existing topographical maps. He said the scenery would attract many American tourists to Alaska if the highway was built. :

Calls Scenery Magnificent - “The most magnificent scenery I

‘have ever seen in my life,” Mr.

Johnson said, “is along the Alaskan coast. 1 traveled extensively through Switzerland seven -years ago and it

has nothing to compare with the |

scenic beauty that I saw in Alaska.” Secretary Johnson .was accompanied by J. Monroe Johnson, as-

sistant secretary of commerce, who |-

also is interested in the development of Alaska. At Junéau they met and conferred with Secretary of the Interior Harold L. Ickes who was visiting there: Mr. Johnson said the airplane at present is the real answer to the future development of Alaska, due to the ghsence of highways and the time required for surface vessels to steam hetween ports. He cited an air journey from Juneau to Xetchinkan which required five hours by plane and takes five and one-half days by surface ship.

RIGHT THING WRONG PLACE

LANCASTER, O., Aug. 25 (U.P). —Carl Waldorp told Mayor J. W. ‘Huddle that he had parked his automobile “to sleep off the effects of drinking.” Mayor Huddle agreed that Waldrop was foresighted, but fined him $10 because he had chosen the middle of Main St. for his rest.

This rare photograph of an albino bull giraffe with an ordinary giraffe was taken in Kenya Colony, East Africa, by Col. A. J. MacNab, ‘ president of the Camp Fire Club of America and former military

attache to the embassy in Mexico City. It is the first authentic photo-

graph ever taken of an albino giraffe. The white color is caused by lack of color pigment in the animal's skin.

PHONES ON HIGHWAYS BERLIN, Aug. 25 (U. P.).—Motorists traveling on any German main highways can now be reached by telephone. Stations situated at regular intervals along the roads receive calls and pass them up and down the line. . ;

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