Indianapolis Times, Indianapolis, Marion County, 17 September 1937 — Page 32

PAGE 32

Ratings gs and Predictions

Start Soon

Astonishing Success Picking Winners Credited To Scientific System.

Now that football time is here again, two big questions are on the lips of every sports fan, -everywhere, every week. The first big question is: “What college has the best football team ih the country?” The second big question is: “Who is going to win next Saturday?” There are variations of the first question, such as: “Who's tops in the Big Ten?” or: “Who is champion of the Midwest, the Indiana College Conference?” As each Saturday draws closer that word “Who?” grows louder and louder. In WILLIAMSON'S SCIENTIFIC FOOTBALL RATINGS AND PREDICTIONS; which will appear throughout the football season in The Indianapolis Times, readers will get the answers to those questions as accurately as statistical science ~ can render them. To answer the first question The Times will publish each Tuesday, beginning Sept. 28, the WILLIAMSON RATING TABLE, giving a rating of relative strength, and consistent performance to more than 600 teams, large and small, all over America. And to answer that “Who” question, The Times on each Friday, beginning Sept. 24, will publish the WILLIAMSON SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS, in which the result ef every game to be played on the following week-end will be predicted on the basis of the current ratings. “Upsets” Bad Guesses Yes, there is a lot of luck to football. ‘But a surprising number of socalled “upsets” are not real upsets at all. They merely upset bad guesses made without full informa.tion about the two competing teams. What is scientific about the Williamson System is that it|is based upon the most complete set of FACTS about each team that it is possible to procure, with [sectional bias, big reputations of other years, and "other forms of conjecture eliminated. All these facts, gathered by the most efficient football fact-finding organization ever set up in America, are boiled down to a single table of percentage ratings. These ratings give the exact shade of difference between any two teams, as Indicated by their past performances. The predictions made from the ratings are the results reasonably to be expected from each team according to its Past record. When a/ game does upset a prediction made on this sound scientific basis, it REALLY is ‘an upset. Actually, in 1936, only 12 per /cent of the 2600 games predicted by the Williamson System were such set or unpredicted ties. This eant that the Williamson predictions were 88 per cent right, and if ties are disregarded, the batting average was 91 per cent. — 95 Per Cent Right The Williamson final post-game rating table for the 1936 season, which placed America’s teams in their 1-2-3 order of effectiveness, was 95 per cent consistent with the season's records. This meant that in 95 per cent of all games played, the team rated higher in Williamson’s final table had beaten the team rated lower. This statistical check is made each year tog measure the scientific accuracy | | the rating system. It is getting harder and harder for the sports fan to tell which of the teams he reads about is better than the other. No longer are there a few great “ivy” teams dominating all rivals, or powerful football sections of the country whose teams are unbeatable by invaders from any other section. Notre Dame may catch a Tartar down in Arkansas, or Princeton get pushed around by an outfit from New Mexico. _ Nowadays, great football can appear from the most unexpected places. And as a result, it is practically impossible to form any general conclusion about g | coming game from hearsay ‘alone. | It was to meet this situation that P. B. Williamson, a New Orleans geologist and engineer, invented his system, For a quarter of a century he had been a football fan. He had been fooled as often as all of .us. He soon realized that “upsets” were almost as common as games which bore out the advance “dops.” So he investigated the “upsets,” found . out what made them upsetting. The chief reason for the upsets, he found, was lack of full information about the teams, and absence of any truly scientific method of correlating the information once it was received. But he began to find certain factors that could be measured mathematically, and gradually evolved a working formula. Right at the start he found that too much emphasis was being placed on comparative scores. Everyone knows that by the “who beat whom” method you can sometimes prove that Cripple Creek Aggies should beat Minnesota. Even when not carried to this extreme,

+ Williamson found score records en-

tirely misleading. [RELIEF FOR ITCH Acts Very Quick!

Amazingly 1a ris 2sting Blue Stag promptly os the lies of eczema, rash,

THE INDIANAPOLIS TIMES

FRIDAY, SEPT. 17, 1937

THE TIMES TO PUBLISH WILLIAMSON'S FOOTBALL DATA

Interference Still Moot Topic

The white-jerseyed deTense player is guilty of in‘terference. By shoving, he . is’ not making ‘a bonafide

attempt to catch the ball. Here the black-jerseyed offensive player, catching the pass, commits interference by knee- _ ing the defender.

Football officials are urged to be more cautious in calling passinterference this year. The rules, despite near-hysteria last season, remain unchanged, but a new interpretation allows bodily contact if both men make bonafide attempts for the ball as illustrated here.

a Sg

rry Kelley's much-discussed kicking of a free ball in the

@—¢

Yale-Navy game last year caused the rule makers to decree booting ball even accidentally means its loss at point of foul.

Let's Go Fishing—

Conditions Much Improved In State, Wardens Report

Fishing prospects seem a little. brighter for this week-end, according to the report of Indiana game wardens on the condition of the state's lakes and streams made public today by the State Conservation

Department.

All streams are clear and in fair shape for fishing in Fulton County. Hendricks County reports all streams clear also. In Kosciusko the Tip-

pecanoe is clear and Wawasee Lake @ is reported in fair condition. Many adverse reports were received from varying sections but on the whole the picture is brighter than it has been for weeks. The report in full:

Allen—Maumee and St. Mary's Rivers in poor shape. Cedar Creek and Lake Everett clear.

Bartholomew—White River, Driftwood, Flatrock, Sandcreek, Clifty Creek muddy.

Blackford—Salamonie, Big Lick Creek and Little Lick all muddy.

Boone—Eel River, Raccoon, Big and Little Eagle all clear and in good shape, also Mud Creek. Brown—Salt and Bean Blossom Creeks muddy. Echo Lake clear, in good condition. Carroll—Lake Freeman is milky. Wabash River, Rock, Wildcat, Deer Creeks muddy. Clay—Eel River in poor shape; Birch Creek in fair shape. Eel River is high, Clark—Fourteen Mile Creek and Silver are muddy. Muddy Fork also muddy. Clinton—Kilmore Creek and South Fork Wildcat in fair shape. Middle Fork, Potato Creek in good shape. Daviess—Prairie, Sugar, Smothers, and East Side Lake all muddy. Old beds fair. Dearborn—All streams are muddy, and in poor condition for fishing. Decatur—Big and Little Flatrock, Clifty, Sandcreek all muddy. Big Four Reservoir, Lake McCoy milky. Dekalb—Lintz, Story, and Cedar Lake clear. Delaware—Mississinewa is muddy. Buck and Ball Creeks in fair shape. White River milky. Elkhart—Fish and Heaton Lakes clear and iny fair shape. St. Joe River clear, in good shape. Fayette—West Fork muddy. Williams Creek and Nolan’s Fork, clear. Fulton—All streams are clear and in fair shape for fishing. Gibson—Wabash, White Old Patoka, New Patoka, Old Bayous, Long Pond, all muddy. Grant—Mississinewa, Deer, Walnut and Pipe Creeks are muddy. Greene—White and Eel Rivers muddy, in poor shape. Shakamak clear, in fair shape. Hancock—Big Blue River, Big Sugar Creek, Brandywine, all muddy. Little Sugar and Buck Creek are milky. Hendricks—Little White Lick, Eel River, Middle and West Fork are all clear. Henry—All streams clear, but not in shape for fishing. Howard—Wildcat muddy. Little Wildcat, Kokomo, Honey Creek all in fair shape. Huntington — Wabash River is muddy. Rest of streams are clearing. Jasper—Kankakee is milky. Iroquois is clear. Hoodge, Jungle, Hoover ditches in good shape. Jay—Wabash, Salamonie, Limberlost Creeks all muddy and in poor condition. Jefferson—Big Creek and Indian Kentuck both muddy. Jennings — Muscatatuck, Sand,

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‘Graham Creeks are milky. Graford Pond clear.

Johnson—Big Blue River, Sugar

Creek muddy. Young's Creek milky. Knox—White and Wabash Rivers muddy. Pits and washouts are clear and in fair shape. Kosciusko—Tippecanoe River is clear, Wawasee Lake in fair shape. Lagrange—Pike, Bass, Bluegills hitting on all lakes and streams. Lake — Singleton and Browns ditches are milky, in fair shape. Kankakee in good shape. La Porte—Streams are clear and in good shape for fishing. Marion—White River milky. All streams are muddy and in poor shape. Marshall—Tippecanoe River cledr, Yellow muddy. All other streams clear. Martin—Mountain = Spa branch, Sandpit .clear, all other creeks muddy. Monroe — Clear Creek, Griffen Creek, Waterworks, Indian . and Moore's Creeks clear. Montgomery — Sugar Creek {is milky. Rest of creeks in county clear. Newton—Kankakee and Beaver Creeks milky but in good shape. Iroquois River is muddy. Ohio—All streams are muddy and in poor shape. Perry—All streams muddy and in poor shape. Posey—Wabash River, Big Creek muddy. Black River milky. Hovey's and Weiss Lakes milky. Putnam—Big Walnut, Eel River muddy. Deer, Walnut are in fair shape. Randolph—All streams are muddy and in poor shape. Ripley—Laughrey Creek muddy. Big Graham, Ripley Creeks milky and in poor shape. Rush—Big Flatrock is milky, Little Flatrock clear. Little Blue, Six Mile, Clifty, Mill Creeks clear. Scott—Jones’ Lake is clear. Shelby—Big Blue and Flat Rock River muddy. Brandywine, Little Blue and Sugar milky. Spencer—Lincoln Lake clear. Lake Deam clear. Starke—EKoontz and Eagle Creeks

ciear, so is Robbins’ Ditch, Yellow |

and Kankakee muddy. St. Joseph—St. Joe River, Riddle, Clear and Chain Lakes clear but in poor shape. Switzerland—Plum Creek, Indian Kentuck muddy. Tippecanoe—All streams in bad shape for fishing.

Union—East Fork milky. Four

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Golfers Clash At Fortville

Pro-Amateur Teams Enter Final Round.

Ten

Ten pro-amateur teams were to tee off today at Fortville for the final round of the R. XK. Stafford 36-hole pro-amateur golf tournament. At the end of 18 holes yesterday two teams were tied for first place with scores of 64. Chuck Garringer, Speedway pro, headed one group, which ‘included Jack Fortner, Mel Smith and Bob Arnold, while Bill Heinlein of Coffin played with G. H. Norris, J. Lavin, Dick Collins and Gordon Farquar. Two strokes behind the leaders were teams headed by Roy Byrd of Muncie, Charles Higgs of Kokomo, and Lou Feeney of Indianapolis. Today's play was to begin at noon with the teams teeing off at 10® minute intervals.

George Browne, with a gross 83, won the annual Indianapolis Optimist Club tournament at Hillcrest yesterday. Clarence Kottlowski turned in an 87 for second place and Clarence R. Irish took third with 88. Twenty-two players took part in the tournament and attended a dinner at the club following the meet.

HARTKE TO SPEAK

Quentin Hartke, Indiana director of the Works Progress Administration Recreation Division, departed today for Battle Creek, Mich., where on Sunday he will address a meeting of the America Baseball Congress. His subject will be “Development of State Baseball Programs.”

Mile is in good shape. Indian Creek clear. Tipton—Pits are in fair shape. Upper Wildcat muddy. Vanderburgh—Pigeon Creek, Ohio

River, Bluegrass Creek are muddy.

and All

Warrick—Pigeon is high muddy. Scales Lake clear, streams muddy. Wayne—Middle Fork Whitewater in good shape. Greene Fork, Simmons Upper and Lower West Fork Whitewater in good shape.

Game Should Be Better Than Ever, Lou Little Says

By LOU LITTLE Columbia University Head Coach ; NEW YORK, Sept. 17.—Football will be a better.game this fall than

ever before.

Largely because it will be the same game the boys played

last year. Players, coaches, officials, and fans have been spared the neces-

sity of reading up on new rules. beginning.

They’ll know what's what from the

The game right now is nicely balanced. If there is an edge, -it goes to the offense. That is as it should be. Power, speed, and deception, with

a generous amount of skill, are de-® manded by the sport as it stands today. I am convinced that the rules committee was wise in not heeding the near-hysteria at the end of last season regarding proposed rules changes on forward pass interference. The problem was considered at length. But going over it, front and back, up and down, the ruies makers could find nothing to put into words that would solve the problem. I am confident, however, that good will grow out of all the talk that followed last year’s big games. The significance of some of last year's major game decisions—and the subsequent heated discussions by fans, writers, and everyone else—will have the effect of making officials more careful, perhaps a bit more deliberate.

Offense Also Can Interfere

Sometimes, I believe, a decision has been made too quickly. A second thought and an open mind that will not call interference unless there has been a deliberate attempt by the defensive or offensive player to interfere will go a long way toward clearing up the perplexities of the play. I expect to see officials more conscious this year than ever before of

the fact that the infraction is not necessarily and-invariably the fault of a defensive player. Too often officials have failed to realize that the offensive player, going down under a pass, can also interfere ‘with the defense. The change in ites which abolishes the second kickoff when the ball goes out of bounds on the first kick is a good one. Hereafter the ball will be put in play on the receiving team’s 35-yard line or at a point 10 yards in from where it crosses the sideline.

Kicking Should Improve

This is bound to speed .up the game. Too often in recent years, teams have kicked from the sideline, with the ball going out of bounds to necessitate the anticlimax of a second effort. Now, if they are going to kick from the sideline, they’ll either have to kick accurately or give the ball to .the rivals on “the 35-yard Stripe,

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Washington Pro Gridders Win, 13-3 tay :

WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 (U, P.). —Riley Smith, ithe Alabama quarterhack, made Washington fans happy today sbout their new National League football team .by place-kicking twice and dashing 50 yards with an intercepted pass to beat the New York Giants, 13 to 3. Slinging Sammy Baugh, the former Texas Christian back, shared honors in the former Boston Redskin's opening game here with passes to Charlie Malone, Ernie Pinckert and Fob McHesney. But the big thrill for 24,942 fans in Griffith Stadium last night was Smith’s dash with four minutes left

with an intercepted pass from Jim McNeill.

ARMSTRONG STOPS DEFOE IN FOURTH

NEW YORK, Sept. 17 (U. P).—= Henry Armstrong, Los Angeles, scored a four-round knockout

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