Indianapolis Times, Indianapolis, Marion County, 13 November 1936 — Page 18
aoe J
U.S. Forecasting Service].
Will Be 100 Years Old in 1939.
BY ROY F. HENDRICKSON
Director of Economic Information, Department of Agriculture (Written for the United Press) WASHINGTON, Nov, 13, — Esti-
mates of the Department of Agriculture of production of &ll major
American farm commodities represent. the finished product of a mass of statistical Information” furnished by 75,000 farmers.
A nationwide network of agricultural experts, highly trained statisticians and farmers on almost every rural free delivery route is utilized to compile data for its crop report.
.Long experience has taught this government agency to forecast crop jEroduetion with amazing accuracy. £ On its figures depends the trend of f the market and to some extent thé | fortunes of the farmer. * Equipped with forms supplied by ; the bureau of agricultural economics, farmers estimate the condition } "of the crop in terms of its relation. ship to normal and supply other ; calculations, - including prospective yields, ; State Bureaus Aid
The pencilled reports of the farmers first go to state and regional offices maintained by the hureau’s crop reporting board, ‘many of them in co-operation with state institutions. State and re‘gional reports then go to a s 1 imail box in the office of the eftary of agriculture that requires itwo keys to be opened. One of fthese keys is in the custody of J. tA. Becker, chairman of the crop ‘reporting board; the other is in i possession of the secretary of agri‘culture. Each time a report is issued Becker and a group of commodity and statistical specialists sit as a board. Each makes a separate najtional estimate based on a perusal jof the state reports and a group of special reports which come directily to the board. Where they dis‘agree they make a re-examination of the data in detail. The report is always ready on time with releases jof the general commodity reports iregularly scheduled after the close ‘of markets.
¢ , Service Begun in 1839 ! The bureau's crop reporting serv-
ice soon will be 100 years old. Theil.
Jrst offficial crop reporting wor ‘undertaken bythe government began in 1839. Naturally it was ex;tremely limited in scope and sketchy at the beginning. ¢ After the department was es‘tablished in 1862 a statistical ‘unit was created .and since that time icrop reports have appeared regularly with scarcely an interruption and with steady improvement in the techniques which go into their making and which has been the subject of many research papers. The number of farmers co-operat-ing in their preparation has*inreased greatly and there is giarcey’ Ty a township in the United States today without one or more farms ers contributing without compengation for his time to the making of the crop estimates Not until 1912 was any aftempt made to forecast production prior to harvest. In 1915 forecasts of cotton production were started and since that time forecast prior to harvest has been expanded to include most of the crops grown in the United States.
Drastic Curb on Speculators
This government service largely ‘has eliminated what was once a widespread activity—the spreading of false reports regarding crop prospects and production intended ‘to influence market movements and prices with a view of taking selfish advantage of farmers. Speculators in generations past made many a “killing” as a result of switches in prices resulting from widespread dissemination of false reports, With a steady and con«tinuous flow of official, unbiased information this activity, which ‘was contrary to the ‘welfare of consumers, distributors, as well as ito. producers, has been reduced sharply. Farmers have gained respect for the reports and gauge]. ‘their marketing programs accord‘ingly, with the result that they operate in the light of facts where once they were relatively blind as to the facts of prospects and production affecting their prices and endangering their incomes and
HAWAII'S BARMAIDS
CITED AS MENACE | \
—————————— By United Preas
HONOLULU, Nov. 13.—~Barmaids|{
- Zipper, Top Fastener and Envelope styles, etc,
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Pi 'S~Bring your old wagons, bicycles or anything on wheels and we will( 2 give.) you a 50¢ trade-in allowance on the purchase of this wagon. FR Leader’s—Toyland. ‘Main Floor Annex.
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iy find. pitt Yor yourself why. 80. many men are taking advantage of these savings’ Youll find better -fabrics than you believe possible... finer tailoring and details... ete. SIZES AND STYLES FOR EVERY TYPE.
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