Indianapolis Times, Volume 33, Number 66, Indianapolis, Marion County, 27 July 1920 — Page 3

ESTIMATORS RARELY MISS SIZEOFCROP siyrperts Compile Information From Averages of 215,000 Reporters. REPORT EVERY MONTH By FREDERIC J. HASKIN. WASHINGTON, July 27.—The govern- ! xnent soothsayers, prophets of the future, revealers of things that are to be, are Just now coming to the end of a stressful season. They have again been asked to give the a > swot. far In advance* of a normal Revelation of the facts, to the vital question. "How mu:n food will America coa- j tribute to a hungry world?” They are the men who operate the bureau of crop estimates of department of agriculture, and it is no small task to tell in advance the likely yield, year by year, from all the farm lands tf| the United States. The government, month by month, aa tbe season -dvances. compiles all the information that it can get, and from that information draws the best conclusions that Us experience and wisdom make possible as to the amount if wheat, corn, cotton and otlr crops that are to come from the soil. It gives this information to the Wall street broker, to the dealer, the consumer, the farmer, to everybody. It does this that the sophisticated among the hundred million may not have an advantage over the unsophisticated, 'that markets may not be juggled on false information, that whoever buys or sells these staples may have the facts upon which to base a judgment of their value. Every month during the spring and summer the bureau pf crop estimates issues a statement in which it reviews the crop situation ard fiacres from these facts what the yield- should be. It finds out as nearly Ns it can how many acres have been planted to the different crops and the conditions under which these crops are growing. It compares the acreage and conditions with similar reports from past years. reaches the conclusion that the logical yield under the circumstances should be this figure or that. It shows how the estimate compares with the crop of last year and with the crop of the average year. This is necessary because the consumption of a product like wheat is constant and a yardstick must be furnished by which to measure prospective prtces. 'it Is an infinitely difficult thing to find out in April, for instance, just how many acres have been planted in wheat between Maine and Oregon. DEPARTMENT HAS 215.000 REPORTERS. The department, however, has about 215,000 reporters. Each of these is a man who is close to the soil in his community. Each makes up a statement in which he estimates that the acreage in his community is normal, 10 per cent above 15 per cent below. or whatever he believes it to be. Three estimates come in from every communitr. and the average of these three is likely to be a nearly correct estfmate. ... , If this estimate is too High it is llkoly to be counteracted by an estimate from another community which is too low. The average of al! estimates from all sources is likely to lie quite close to the facts. With the acreage determined as nearly as possible, the department asks for reports, month by month, on the condition of the crop. Is it norma!, or better or worse than normal? i Its 215.000 reporters send in details on this subject. Acreage land condition being deter- • mined, the crop probabilities are figured out. The man in a township, having a ; bumper crop or a poor one. might conclude that the nation would be overfed or starved according to his prospects. The county agent might draw different conclusions from his outlook. The field agent representing a great state might register gloom or optimism according to his lights. But the Individual reckoning of any one of these is on too narrow a plane. Even tbe prospective yield of thl* most productive nation might be counteracted hr world conditions. A 1,1, RECORDS ARE COMBINED. So the reports from the townships must, be combined with counties, counties with •fates, states with the nation. The whole program must be repeated every month. s Judgment and knowledge must be applied to the process at every step. And it has to be done on schedule time. The bureau must not go far wrong because the.crop will soon be harvested and the actual figures reveaJed. For twenty years the estimates have, on the average, been within l’i per cent of the crop. Thirteen times thje department has underestimated the crop, and seven times i* has overestimated it. When the estimates are ready for announcement an event of Importance is ataged. The government announcement of the probability of a poor yield of cotton or a good yield of rice will have a definite influence on the market—will send the price of a particular staple up or down. If an interested party knew the facts In advance he could make a fortune. Therefore, on announcement days, the workers in the bureau in Washington must bring their lunches because they are locked in until the figures are finally

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announced at a quarter rffter 2 in the afternoon. * i Ali telephones are disconnected. The sealed reports from Various states have been arriving for days. They are brought by special messengers from the postoffice and are locked in the safe with their seals still unbroken. On the final day they aiv? carried in state to the office of the crop estimator. There they are opened by the board, on which the secretary himself is sitting, and ?he computers set to work making up the averages. BOARD MEMBER GAVE OCT TIP. About twelve years ago a member of this crop estimate board conspired with a confederate to tip information in ail- | van e that they might profit in tho j market. Sitting in a locked room with the secretary of agriculture and his associates he managed to jiend forth the signals. This was done by raising or lowering a curtain. At a certain point in the window the curtain indicated an average crop of cotton. When raised it meant-the crop was above the average, and when lowered, that it was under the usual yield. This code was quite simple and it worked. \ large sum of money was cleaned up, but eventually the ruse was discovered and its perpetrators were exposed and prosecuted. . . At a set moment the secretary of agriculture and Leon M. Estabrook, chief of tbe bureau, come downstairs with the monthly estimate. Reporters for the various press assoj ciations, newspapers ami brokerage 1 houses are waiting tensely for the word. 1 Telegraph and telephone connections are already made to New York, Chicago. ; New Orleans and London. ; The word is given, copies are grabbed I and the scramble against time begins. Around tickers in a thousand offices, in stock exchanges all over the world, are many individuals waiting nervously for this information. Fortunes are made and lost on it. - It speeds men and women on the road to wealth or brings about their impov--1 erishment. Once in the last few years the report was a half minute late because something got the matter with the multigraph at the department. An anxious crowd was waiting about the co.ton exchange in New Orleans. One of the receiving telegraph opera- | tors leaned" over to another and asked him what he thought the figure representing the estimate in bales would be. The telegrapher wrote his guess on a piece of paper. A broker, craning his neck, saw that figure. > He thought it was one that the operator had just received, and he hurried onto the floor of >the stock exchange and placed his supposed information. His mistake cost him a lot of money.

MANY CHANGES IN PASTORATES Bishop Chartrand Announces Pulpit Assignments. Numerous changes in the pastorates of Indianapolis and Indiana Catholic churches hare been announced by Rt. Rev. Joseph Chartrand. bishop of the diocese of Indianapolis. Her. Joseph F. Bvrne, pastor of St. Anthony's church, will become pastor of the Holy Cross church. He will be snec*ded hr iter Albert Bnsall, pastor of St. Mary's church. Father Busald will be sueceded by Iter. John 11. SheefeTS of Vincennes. Other change* announced follow: Rev John Schenk, who has been in charge of Holy Cross church since the death of Rev. .Tames TVafle. Is appointed pastor at Branch. Ind.; Rev. P. IT Griffin, for tnerly chaplain in the United States army, is appointed pastor st Columbus Ind.; Rev James B. Delaney of Columbus is appointed paster of st. Patrick'* church. Terre Haute; Rev. Edgar C. O'Connor, recently ordained, is assigned for duty at th? ca*hedral: Rev. Pierre Dixon, who for two years has been a*, elatant priest at st. Anthony's church, is transferred to Terre Haute as assist nnt at St. Patrick's church; Rev. Albert Schad. assistant at St. Mary's church, is transferred ;o St. Anthony's church ; Rev. J G. Lsun**rt Is arp-ilpt** nasi..? at Bloomington In the place of Rev. V. H. Bogemsnn, who has resigned after thirty-five yearo as paw’or; Rev. Urban Sondennann, re'ently ordained. 1* narneq assistant at Holy Cross church, Indianapolis. The Rev. T,eo Crceden of Indianapolis, recently ordained, is made assistant at the Church of Assumption. Eva n * Title : the Rev. Thomas Mattingly, recently ordained. is made assistant at Kransrille; the Rer. Edward Bockhold recently ordained, is appointed assistant at St. Mary's church, Indianapolis; the Rev. F. W. Wolf is transferred from Posevville to Troy; the Rev. Henry Verst is transferred from St. Phillip’s to Poseyyille: the Rev. Theodore J. Volimer is transferred from Bt. Joseph to St. Phillip Posey county; the Rev. Edward L. Onsde, from North Vernon to St. Joseph, Vanderbnrg county; the Rev. Edward Bauer, from Fort Branch to North Vernon; the Rev. August Sprlgler. from Sullivan to North Vernon. s nowfor in place of the Rev. G. L. Wldenin, who died recently; the Rev. F. X. Sheer, from Terre Haute to Sullivan; the Rev. Pierre Brisse, recently of Evansville, to Terre Haute, as assistant at St. Patrick's; the Rev. Clement Thlenes is to organize a new parish in the south part of Terre Haute, to be known as St. Margaret Mary parish; the Rev. J. n. Honnigford of Napoleon and the Rev. Henry Dugan of Evansville are appointed professors in the Woman’s college at St. Mary-of-tho-Woodg; the Rev. Henry Hunger of Hayden, is appointed pastor at Napoleon.

PUSS IN BOOTS JR. By DAVID CORY.

You remember in the last story that Puss had male a visit on the dusty rusty miller, who ground 'his corn at early dawn for the farmers to make nice pies and cake. Well, after he had stayed a iitttle while under the great willow tree that stood by the old mill he walked away, and-by and by he came to a hill. And right here I must tell you that Goosey Gander wasn’t with him. You see, that old goose grew tired of flying with Puss on his back, and sc decided to stay with the miller and eat corn for the rest of his life. TV ell, when Puss came to the foot of the hill he said to himself: “Shall 1 climb this bill or shall I turn off into Ibe meadow and follow the brook?” Aua while he was wondering what to do an old woman flew by in a basket. And she was the old woman who went up tc (he moon to see the man who came down too soon. And then a little* yellow bird began to sing: “There was an old woman tossed in a blanket Seventeen times as high as tho moon. But where she wan going no mortal could tell For under her arm she carried a broom. Old woman, old woman, old woman, said J, Whither, oh, whither, oh, whither, so high ? To sweep the cobwebs from the sky. . And I’ll be with you by and by’." “Tlesse take me with you,” cried little Puss Junior. So tbe old woman came down close to the meadow and Puss jumped into her basket, and pretty soon they were flying high up In tbe air. And every time they came across a cobweb she brusiied it away with her broom, for she wanted the sky bright and clear, you see. and perhaps that is the sky Is ao bright on Monday, for that is the day, so they tell me, she likes to do her sweeping. “What do you da on rainy days?” asked Puss. “Shine the rainbows, dearie," said the old woman.

MOTdONPICTUJIES. • BEN TURPIN In \ Married Life A Five-Reel Mack Sennett Comedy, MABEL NORMAND In The Slim Princess CHf*l ICII’C CONTINUOUS |j CUfSLIan and i Until II P. M. THOMAS MEIGHAN IN WM. C. DEMILLE'S PRODUCTION “THE PRINCE CHAP” WITH LIL.A LEE, KATHLYNN WILLIAMS, ANN FORREST, [ THEODORE KOSLOFF AND A NOTABLE CAST. | | “THE 3r L £wOWIAN AN ALL STAR CAST mmfia isr£ ?.JC\\ CHRISTY COMEDY FOX NKWti WEEKLY

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“Dear me,” answered Puss, “and did you ever find tbe pot of gold that is hung at one end?” “No, not yet,” she replied, “for the fairies are ever on the watch, and before- I can get there fhey take it away and hide it in the woods.” “She Ilruslied the Cobwebs Awy With Her Broom.” “Well, I think you ought to be paid for keeping the sky so bright and clean,” said Puss. But the old wumau did not reply, for Just then a strong wind blew the basket into a tree top where a robin had a a nest full of pretty blue eggs. And when he saw Fuse he was frightened to death, for he was afraid of cats, you see, and so are all birds that I ever knew. "Don’t worry," said our little traveller. “I won’t steal your china blue egga.’ Aud the old woman said, "Neither will I," and after that the robin felt so hap py that he sang his song Just as if nothing had happened.*’—-Copyright, 11120. (To Be Continued.) AUTO HITS BOY ON BIKE. Joan Wilde, 10, of 23*4 Kenwood avenue was slightly Injured yesterday when his bicycle was struck by an automobile driven by Frank Lawson, 1306 North Capitol avenue, at Capitol avebue and Sixteenth street.

Marion Man to Head the Mi1 wqM kee Home Special to The Times. MARION, Ind., July 27.—C01. Fred E. Bury, former quartermaster of the Marlon branch of the National Military home, has been appointed governor of the Northwestern branch, N. H. D. V. S., at Milwaukee, Wis. Col. Bury was connected with the quartermaster’s department of the Marlon home from 1900 until 1907, when he returned to active service during the world war. He served on the general staff of the Second army, American expeditionary forces, and was chlef-of-staff to the commanding general, A. E. F., at Archangel, Russia. He was decorated by the Russian government with the military cross of St. Anne, and was recommended for tho United States distinguished service medal for his services in Russia. AMUSEMENTS.

RIALTO VAUDEVILLE—PICTURES A Downtown Beach THE COOL JOY SPOT Willard and 1 Shepard and Daisy ! Dunn, Singing and Two Claesy Talking. 1 Hoys. Stine Trio | Scott A Lewis, Novelty j Singing aud Entertainers. Dancing. Leonard and Jermaine, Dance Kevuo. Buck Jones, “The Square Shooter.” Ladles get coupons at this theater good at the Broadway matinees Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

'3&4cadumr CONTINUOUS VAUDEVILLE NOW SHOWING Bbig8 big q FEATURES O NOON TILL 11 I*. M. Ladle*' F'rgain Matinee, Mon.. Wed. and Frl. DMIIRAT Mthiswek EVES. 1:10 ■a Mat*. Wed., Thnr*., Sat., 3:Sn y THE STUART WALKER CO. 9 BABY MINE I Margaret Mayo.’* Comedy Classic • DRIFCC Ete*.. 50c, *I.OO, *1.50. OrniWCd Mill.. 25c, .50c, 75c. —NEXT WEEK— A LITTLE journey mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmsmmmmmmmmmmnrnmmmsmsssassrmma CO.VTLYIOIS VAIDKYILLK doing All tho Time— 1 Until 11 I*. M. MARION po ** u Tro °p* IHHmvn Thornton Sister* MUNSON Louis Hart A Cos. Christy A McThe Quickest Donald Woman in Smlletta Strother* the World Malvllle A Stetson Johnny Ray in “J.libS I SOCIETY’ Dancing in the Lyric llallroom Afternoon ami Evening

SI THE FAIR IH “■"‘.E, iV STILL IN OUR OLD LOCATION ggp 407-417 WEST WASHINGTON STREET $ | ,ofi Clean-Up Sale ol Wednesday Sale ol SUITS POLO COATS iSßk ll That Formerly Sold Included in the lot are a few long 11 1 n J toe nn serge coats - Beautiful shades of KWgpi Up to $25.00 navy , tan, Copen M All-wool serges and neat mixtures. fj in nay y> P lmn > Sizes 16 to 44. f black and Co- Actually worth up A \\ Sj ISSnF P en - Sizes 16 to $12.50. Special CfXjXS to 44, Wednesda y for Wednesday at— /aAW/f\\ f *I2 7S *1“ m JR\ Wool Velour j / f %i\ Silk Poplin Check Skirts skirts Worth Up to $lO 1 j j n . ** vr i All new spring Regular $5 Value models. Priced for ,2 In black, nary and taupe; way be- Wednesday at — ™1.52,98 *4.98 P t Stout DRESSES Stout DRESSES $12.50 Values Satins, taffetas, jerseys and Pretty voiles and ging- serges; sizes 43 to 55; S3O hams; sizes 42 to 52 — value—*s.oo *15.00 SUITS for Large Women All-wool blue serges, beautifully lined; 4* m £& efts sizes to 50f£. Regular $35.00 $1 U 6l values. Special Wednesday | ■%p V Large Size Coats Large Size Skirts // Serges and silks, $25.00 Silk poplins in nave, black 111 -*** ■*.’<.- #ST *13.75 *3.98 Women’s Silk Tricoletle Dresses Underwear . Values Up to $25.00 v* A Navy, black, brown and Pekin. C WOMEN’S UNION SUITS V* [ Sires Ifi to 44- extra sneoial —Women’s fine ribbed cotton Jf L J] 10 .10 extra special union suits, in pink or white; MtL / Wednesday—extra sizes, 59c?. 40* / / m Regular sizes .HOB Jj jggs *pgg KAYSER'9 UNION BUITS flfjaL I Kayscrs fine lisle ribbed Y- Ul m B M union suits; suits in the loose or tight knee; pink or white; extra sizes, f 1.25. A I AA Regular size* I awU i WT /y o * k. yser'7 uelV~r7,be□ \W If Voile and Gingham UNION SUITS In the band \ vx top or strap top, In loose or WHEPaEcSu? I tight knee; pink or white; £ VHgggjjKW mJK VJOvJ ami 98 $1.48 Values Up to $7.50 kayser’s lisle gauze Cool, summery dresses reduced VESTS; In regular or 4Q. for Wednesday extra sizes. Special... ■twO V 1/ KAYSER’S FANCY LISLE -A \ |mk il VESTS—In the band top or (pyLJ j# crocheted tops; pink or <r KJ Hi aT m m]*} £i|f 3“.“ SI.OO — J d ; , WS.IWW Boys’ All-Wool SUITS Men’s sls and $lB Values SO QC Genuine Palm j||a Blue serges, cash- O.Sf Si Roh cn&pM&k meres and green I Mir D dvll “^7^ and brown flan- t li; 3 nels. Extra quality. Sizes up to j| SI fc Ii 1 18 years. „ , . _, Cool, serviceable and if Boys’2-Pants Suits ““l $12.50 Values Reduced to IV ednesday— ( y Cjg $11.95 $ i A.75 K | uKjwN. Wool serges, cashmeres and ■HR 4 tC MfrfM cheviots; green, browm and ■ II gray mixtures; pants full | wSm * 7 - 50 and * lO - 00 .T ¥ cn>s Mcn ’ s wfT Boys' Suits Underwear SHIRTS Cashmeres and tweeds in nKTON brown, grav and fancy SUITS, fine DRAWERS, short Mm mixtures; extra fine qual- Recked and crow- sleeve shirts, anlde W W ity. Pants full lined. Sizes ba s material ; 2l > length drawers; SI.OO IK to 11 y ears value, special— value, garment—s4.9s 75c | 39c

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