The Independent-News, Volume 103, Number 47, Walkerton, St. Joseph County, 27 April 1978 — Page 24

APRIL 27, 1978 - THE INDEPENDENT-NEWS

Farm Products Outlook Strong In 1978 Although the demand for farm products will be strong in 1978, rising prices for nonfood items, such as utilities, services and durable goods, will cause consumers to moderate their overall food demands. This is one of several economic observations made by Purdue University agricultural economists recently at their “outlook update" session. The session, attended by several hundred Hoosier farmers, came on the opening day of Farm Science Days at Purdue. The economists foresee a relatively good market period ahead for hog producers — at least through most of the year — and some encouraging signs for cattle raisers. But the outlook for grain enterprises. although not as dismal as it appeared prior to fall harvest, will demand keen attention to market conditions and farm operations. Here’s how the economists see the general 1978 outlook and that of key Hoosier farm income products. Real growth of the national economy is expected to average between 3 and 5 percent over the next six months and to continue advancing moderately during the latter part of 1978. General inflation will probably average around 5-7 percent (annual rate). And unemployment. which may decrease slowly, is not likely to go below 6 percent. This outlook assumes that energy costs will likely be rising in 1978. prices of industrial goods and services will continue upward, and food prices will rise moderately due mainly to higher processing and

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distribution costs. Some reduction in federal income tax is also expected to be enacted. But foreign demands for U. S. goods and services will be dampened by sluggish economic activity abroad and by emphasis on protectionist oriented policies in several of our major trading partner countries. the economists predicted. Capital spending by business seems likely to move moderately higher and housing outlays are expected to continue high. Total government spending will move higher. The U. S. international trade balance on goods and services. however, is expected to continue to run a deficit. Falling farm prices and only slow ly rising retail food prices have moderated the overall rate of inflation in recent months, they said. But agriculture’s part in the moderation may be ending, as major decreases in agricultural prices have occurred. Thus, increases in other areas will not be offset as much, and some acceleration of inflation may come earlv in the year. HOG MARKET OUTLOOK Demand for meat products will be supported by the growing, but not booming, economy. Large beef and poultry supplies, along with expanding pork production, will maintain pressure on hog prices. Pork output will likely increase 8-11 percent during 1978 with hog prices averaging in the mid-30’s. (seven market average, all barrows and gilts) Hog slaughter is likely to approach 85 million head, highest since 1971. Production costs during 1978 are expected to average $3-$4 per hundredweight under 1977 as there is no shortage of feed grains. Profit margins during the first three quarters of 1978 are likely to ramain positive, but gradually nar-

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row to near breakeven levels or slightly below during the fourth quarter, they said. CATTLE With per capita beef supplies declining 2-4 pounds in 1978 and consumer incomes up, retail beef prices are expected to increase as much as 5 to 10 cents per pound. But pork and poultry supplies will limit the upward price movement. Increased market margins will also absorb much of this increase before it reaches the cattle feeder. Choice slaughter steers are expected to average S4O to $43; but for most of 1978, cattle feeders w ill likely be disappointed in prices and profits, the economists said. In the long run. cattle feeding will continue to be a business of risk, variability, uncertainly, and limited profit. Feeder cattle prices, however. may show considerable strenght in the next few years because of increased feed grain and forage supplies, declining feeder cattle supplies, and increasing demand for beef. Calf prices arc the brightest aspect of the cattle business at this time. Choice 400 to 500 pound calves are selling in the low-to-mid s4o’s, and further advances arc expected as spring grass arrives. SOYBEANS Factors figuring in the soybean outlook arc: a hugh 1977 U. S. crop — up 33 percent from 1978; an estimated 11 percent increase in Brazil's soybean production; an increase in world production of protein meal and fats and of vegetable oils; prospects of high world demand. with exports up; wet fields that delayed harvest, and a big 1978 corp with a big carryover in prospect. The 1977 U.S. soybean crop will total nearly 1.7 billion bushels, setting another record. Indiana’s crop alone was 135 million bushels. Soybean prices, however, have been stimulated in recent weeks bv inventory building, news of special exports, stronger than expected demand for soybean oil. and more protein consuming animal units.

(TjygngMgH ouk hoosier, state lULOUSI beneath us INDIANA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES IMPERVIOUS RANDOM PERVIOUS ’ FILL •"' V.X ' . — BEDROCK \\

GEOLOGY OF DAMSITES Dam and reservoir sites require thorough investigation before design and construction begin. Geologic studies are important in this process, especially for larger dams. Questions to be considered before engineering studies begin include: Will soil and rock support the weight of the dam 7 Are there faults, buried channels, or caverns 7 Are the rocks, particularly near the dam, secure from

Prices averaged in the $5.50 - $5.75 per bushel range in central Indiana by mid-December, up 75 cents per bushel from two months earlier. Prices may hover near this level for a few weeks, the economists said, but some bearish tendencies appear to be in the making. Large 19?8 plantings arc foreseen as the corn soybean price reation favors soybeans slightly. The prospects are for larger supplies of Brazilian soybeans and for even larger carryover stocks of U. S. beans, coupled with competing commodities, they added. Hence, the opportunities to forward price at late 1977 levels may fade fast as these conditions take shape. This means that selling old beans and forward pricing a part of the 1978 corp early in the year should be given high priority. CORN Increased export prospects, larger grop forecasts, harvest delays due to weather, strong farmer holdings of corn, and higher harvest prices along with faster price recovery from harvest lows also play a part in the corn outlook for 1978. the economists said. Current projections call for 1.75 billion bushels to be exported, a new record. Along with Russia. Poland and Japan are expected to take slightly larger quantities than earlier anticipated. But the 1977 crop is expected to total about 6.4 billion bushels — highest of record. Weather delayed harvest which prevented a glutted market, and farmers elected to hold much of their corn due to low market prices. With farmers less than thrilled about the feed grain set aside program, participation is likely to be low. and only small reductions in 1978 corn acreage are foreseen.

, MAX E. STEELE, INSURANCE J NOTARY PUBLIC 110 South Maple Street 1 Phone 656-4641 North Liberty, Indiana

damaging or hazardous leakage? Will the valley till materials prevent seepage under the dam 7 Are local supplies of permeable and impermeable fill materials adequate for constructing the dam? Although detailed studies are made by other agencies or consulting firms, the Indiana Geological Survey is frequently called on to provide information and advice.

Corn prices are likely to be sluggish, hovering around the loan level, until the 1978 corp is more certain. Early sales at $2.05 - $2.15 per bushel in Indiana look good. With “good" 1978 crop prospects, prices are expected to decline into the fall 1978 harvest. Forward pricing part of the 1978 crop that must be sold at harvest should be considered, the economists said. The economists encouraged farmers to make a marketing play for their 1977 and 1978 crops and noted this might include building more storage. Making the outlook presentations were Paul L. Farris, head of Purdue’s Agricultural Economics Department; and J. William Uhrig. William S. Farris. David C. Petritz, David Bache, and Michael B Sands, all Extension economists in the department. With the proper clothing, a man can stand the extreme cold as low as 50 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. Relieves Pain and Itch of Hemorrhoidal Tissues promplh, temporarily in mam cases. Then s a medication that re lieves occasional hemorrhoidal symptoms within minutes Then it goes bevond soothing, actually helps shrink swelling <>f hemorrhoidal tissues due to inflammation Ihe name Preparation H Doctor tested Preparation H with its exclusive formula, is America's leading hemorrhoidal remedy bv far Ointment or suppositories