Evening Republican, Volume 21, Number 28, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 3 February 1917 — WAR TAKES MOST OF COPPER OUTPUT [ARTICLE]

WAR TAKES MOST OF COPPER OUTPUT

At Opening of Hostilities Industry ' Used Nine-Tenths of That » Produced. ■■ —:—l— . ■ > 1916 YIELDS 950,000 TONS United States Now Able to Mine 2,4oo,ooo,ooo'Pounds a Year— Curtailment Feared After ■ ■ the War Ends.' New York. —Authorities on the copper trade estimate that approximately 75 per cent of the world’s present production is being used for war purposes, the remaining 25 per cent going into commercial consumptive channels as before the war began. At the outbreak of hostilities, Jt Is estimated no more than 10 per cent of the copper produced by all the countries with deposits of the metal went into the manufacture of war material. The peaceful trades used up 90 jjer cent, and this proportion existed for several years before the upheaval in Europe. These are significant figures, particuhiflyasTegards the market for copper after the war ends. The United States produced copper *in the autumn months* at the annual rate of 2,400,000,000 pounds, compared with about 1,900,000,000 turned out in all of 1916. In July, 1914, the mines and refineries of the country were turning out the metal at the rate of 1,700,000,000 pounds yearly. From the beginning of the war to the present time, then, production has been increased 700,000,000 pounds. This increase alone is greater than the entire production of the rest of the world at the present rate of output. With talk of peace in the air, it is natural that copper producers and con-

sumers alike should devote agreat deal of thought to what may come when the treaty of peace is signed. With three-quarters of all the metal of the world going into munitions, it is plain enough that a tremendous alteration of market and consumption plans will come with peace. It is only natural to assume that prices will reflect substantially the change of conditions, but copper men are not persuaded that there will be anything like a slump. There will also be need -for a drastic curtailment of production unless peace demands should suddenly expand to a level offsetting the war demand, which experts in the trade hardly expects— — —— Next Six Months' Output Sold. The sellers of copper safr they are quite comfortable about conditions for the first half of this year. They have _reasoa_ta.Jjfi.JSO, for practically all the expected output has been sold, and sold on “firm” contracts —that Is, contracts which call for delivery and payment whatever may be the conditions marketwise. If the war lasts beyond July 1, the copper companies maintain, business must continue good for the allied governments' have to come to the United States, for their supplies if they are to be adequate to the demands of the armies. It is clear, therefore, that the duration of the conflict is the vital factor in the copper trade, not only as regards consumption this year, but a part of next year as well. Copper .prices after the war, in the opinion of a leading seller, will not fre -governed solely by the law of supply and demand as hinged on war operations. They will be affected sub-

stantially by the attitude of the American* producer toward foreign buyers who- come seeking the metal for commercial uses. It is estimated that Germany, Austria, Turkey and Serbia are producing copper at the rate of 100,000,000 pounds a year, air or which, and more, is going into the war machine. Such reports On conditions in the central powers as are available show that these nations have raked and scraped the countries over for all copper implements, which means that in the end vast replacements will need to be made of these supplies. The copper cooking utensils for 100 years or more; roof? of churches and dwelling bouses; electrical implements and railroad and telegraph supplies have been thrown into the melting pot. In fc9lX Germany and Austria imported from this country 500,000,000 pounds of copper, and while a part of'this probably went into war reserves, much of the metal was bought for manufacturing purposes. > __ Curtailment of Buying Expected. These factors of reduced supplies and the known movement of copper Into the central powers in times of peace lead up to the part which American producers will need to play, A jreat deal of the replacements, doubtless, will have to be made in these and otjier European countries, whatever may be the cost. ■ But it stands to reason, as copphr men see it, that high prices and diffident selling methods will tend to curtail buying, especially if the nations of Europe have financial difficulties to solve. American copper interests are aware that committees have been organized in several countries of Europe to devise ways and means of caring for their needs on an economical basis after the war. These organizations, with government co-operation, obviously are laying plans to buy their • metal at prices favorable to themselves or to restrain buying if prices are not suitable. With the thought ip mlrtd that government control is likely to be exercised for a long time over foreign purchases, it is plain why prominent topper men have lately gone on xec-

ord with predictions that 30-cent metal will go by the board when the war ends. If production Is to be~ maintained at a high level, prices will be called upon to bear the brunt of the post-war reaction. There are produc- j ers who feel that the American output will sag back within a year or two after the conflict is over to where it was In 1913; others are persuaded that it will not again fall-so far unless something happens to injure business ail over the world. There are producers who look forward to 15-cent copper after the war demand has been cleared away, while others'think - That quotations will not drop under 20 cents. A great deal as regards both production and prices, it is said in the trade, depends upon legislation, which will permit American exporters to cooperate in sales abroad.

1916 Prices Break All Records. The average price of copper in 1916 was 27.202 cents a pound, according Vo the records of the Engineering and Mining Journal, compared with 17.275 cents the year before. December brought the highest average fpr any month, with a price of 31.890 cents, while in November the average quotation wqs 30.625 cents. The prices of 1916 were never approached In any other year in the history of the industry. Spelter was sold at an average quotation of 12.804 cents a pound, against 13.232 cents in 1915, a slump in the middle of the year- working to keep the average under that of the preceding 12 months. Lead, on the other hand, sold at 6.058 cents, compared with 4.673 cents in 1915 and in December the average pr|ce for the month was 7.50 cents.