Evening Republican, Volume 19, Number 61, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 13 March 1915 — FIVE-CENT-LOAF FOR TEN CENTS WOULD COST UNITED STATES $1,375,000,000 [ARTICLE]

FIVE-CENT-LOAF FOR TEN CENTS WOULD COST UNITED STATES $1,375,000,000

Rise in the Price of Wheat Lays a Tax on the People of This Country Which Makes the War Tax .Look Small —Increased Demand for Other Cereals Causes a Rise in Their Price, Too—Means “Clover” for the Agriculturist.

New York.—The rise in the price of wheat is laying a tax on the people of the United States which makes the “war tax” of 1100,000,000 look small. The standard “five cent loaf” has gone to six and even seven cents in many cities, and predictions of a ten cent loaf are numerous in responsible quarters. What does this mean to the American housewife? George S. Ward, member of a great bread-making concern, figures that Americans consume on the average a barrel of wheat flour a year. From each barrel 275 standard five cent loaves of bread can be baked. For each rise of one cent in the price of the loaf every American must pay $2.75 a year. The census department figures that the population of the United States passed the 100,000,000 mark some time in January. So each one cent rise in the price of the loaf means a tax on the country of $275,000,000. A rise from 5 to 10 cents will cost us $1,375,000,000. * But this will not be the total cost. With the rise in the price of wheat there is an increased demand for other cereals—barley, rye, oats and corn —and these rise in price, too. A further tax is laid on the consumers of rye bread, who are very poor; and it costs more to eat “corn pone” also. The hogs are fed mostly on corn, and if the farmers’ corn is worth more, they will get more for pork and meat prices will rise in consequence. So we are in for an era of high prices; what those who were of mature age in 1861-1865 will remember as the “war prices.” For the farmer it will be “clover.” We raised 891,000,000 bushels of wheat this year and a larger area will be seeded next year. When wheat rises from $1 to $1.50 the farmers of the country get $445,500,000 more without any extra effort, and if prices rise $1 the .vast sum of $891,000,000 will drift into the farmers’ stockings. Good Price* for Grain. In addition, the farmer is getting most gratifying prices for corn, oats and barley—in fact, almost everything except apples, which are plentiful and cheap. This $445,500,000 which a 50 cent wheat rise brings will buy more than a million substantial automobiles. No wonder the agriculturist breathes an atmosphere of gasoline. The high prices for wheat are based more on expectation of shortage than actual shortage. Well informed men say that if the European war were speedily terminated it would take at least two years for Europe to get on its old wheat, production basis. And there appears no prospect of peace. Here are the figures showing there is no actual wheat shortage. Exports at the present rate of 8,000,000 bushels a week can continue practically up to the time of harvesting the 1915 crop without depleting the adequate supply of wheat in this country. The United States department of agriculture figures there is an increase of 4,100,000 acres in the amount of winter wheat planted for harvesting this year. The weather has been good for winter wheat and last year’s enbnnous yield of 19 bushels an acre may well be exceeded. Figuring conservatively on a 15 bushel yield, however, 61,500,000 additional bushels of winter wheat alone should be harvested this year. Crop .experts say that with average good fortune the spring wheat yield should be increased 40,000,000 /bushels. The total for 1915 should be 1,000,000,000 bushels, or 100,000,000 more than last year’s record crop. This is enough to supply America and furnish a surplus of about 416,000,000 bushels for export. Government computations show last year’s crop was 891,017,900 bushels, which with . a surplus of 77,000,000

bushels from 1913 gives a total available supply of 960,000,000 bushels. It takes five bushels of wheat for a, barrel of flour, so the consumption is 500,000,000 bushels. Then 84,000,000 bushels are needed for seed, making total requirements of 584,000,000 bushels. Thus this year we had 316,000,000 bushels available for export. Surplus Not Exhausted. Since July 1, 1914, at the end of which month the war started, the United States had exported 208,000,000 bushels of wheat up to February 1. Thus 108,000,000 bushels are left for Europe. Some statisticians make the amount 144,000,000. Taking the lower figure, if we export at the rate of 8,000,000 bushels a week, the surplus will not be exhausted until some time in May.

This computation is very interesting and is used by many persons as basis for an argument that the prices of wheat are fictitious and based on some sort of a conspiracy. But it is to be remembered that the whole idea of produce is to anticipate future shortages, and a world shortage seems probable, despite tfie bright prospects this holds out for the United States farmers. The Italian government has been buying heavily at Chicago, it is known, and many believe other European states are directly responsible for much of the 'spectacular rise. The French and English fleets have not yet been able to force the Dardanelles, and 150,000,000 bushels of Russian wheat stay tied up in Black sea ports. Russia is unable to ship this food to her allies of the West, France and .Great Britain. If the United States chose to keep all her wheat for herself, prices would be very low in this country, certainly below’ $1 at Chicago and quite probably 75 or 50 cents, which would mean bankruptcy for the farmers. In many sections of the country, however, sentiment is growing for an embargo act. There is the precedent of the war of 1812 for this. Then an embargo was laid on the exportation of all foodstuffs in orddr to try to starve'out Great Britain, then our enemy. Officials of the department of justice at Washington say that the right to do this exists in congress under the federal Constitution. Several senators and representatives have declared themselves in favor of limiting the export of wheat, among them Representative Farr of Pennsylvania, who favors a partial embargo on the export of wheat and flour because he believes the standard loaf will go to eight and then ten cents in price before two months more of the great War have passed. Advocate an Embargo. Another strong exponent of an embargo is Mrs. Julian Heath of New York city, president of the Housewives’ league, which represents 1,000,000 American women. Mrs. Heath says that the Housewives’ league has realized for some time that increased prices for bread were inevitable and has been sending notice to its members to make no effort .to attack the bakers, because the latter are not responsible, but are forced Jo charge, more because their flour costs them more. “The average housewife would do well to learn more of the use of cornmeal," say* Mrs. Heath. “The price of cornmeal has not gone up to any appreciable extent as yet, and, even though it did go up, it would remain a cheap and very nutritious food, and could be made to take the place of a part at least of the weekly bread supply needed by a family.” Another measure of relief which is widely advocated 1* the closing of the produce exchanges. Many believe

this would end speculation and would cause the * price to rise much more slowly. Every telegram from Chicago has a new tale of fortunes made by the traders in wheat. “Killings” unequaled for many years are reported. Joseph Leiter, famous for his attempted corner of 1898, is again “in the market” and is said to have made 1500,000 already, with prospects of much more. He bought heavily when wheat was around $1.28, May option, in Chicago. C. B. Livermore, a New York stock trader, has turned to wheat this winter and made great winnings, it is said, and C. W. Partridge, a Chicago merchant, has amassed a comfortable fortune. A. J. Lichstern and John Barrett are others who have profited exceedingly. These successful traders have believed firmly from the first that the great war meant high prices for grain. They have history to back them. During the American revolution wheat selling at 93 cents in 1776 gradually rose to $3 a bushel. High prices continued because of the Napoleonic wars in Europe. When the Crimean war broke out wheat went kiting. It had been 38 cents in 1854 and by 1855 it was $1.85. Wheat was 62 cents in 1861 and it climbed to $2.85 in 1867. The Franco-Prussian war of 1870-1871 saw prices go from 74 cents to $1.60 and then crash to 92 cents. In 1876, when the Russo-Turkish war began, wheat brought 83 cents. It went to $1.76 and broke to 77 cents when peace was concluded. In the course of the Russo-Japanese struggle of 1094-1905 wheat went to $1.21 and then slumped to 69-cents in 1906.