Evening Republican, Volume 18, Number 84, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 8 April 1914 — FORECASTING STORMS, FROSTS AND FLOOD [ARTICLE+ILLUSTRATION]

FORECASTING STORMS, FROSTS AND FLOOD

* «■■■* ONTEREY, Colic, Dalmatian, I I seaman, ensue, dubbed.” Lb**s4 Why, certainly, help your- ' se 'E gl a( l to know you, sir, 7 or anything else you wish. That’s about what you would say to anyone who stepped up -to you on the street with a knowing air and delivered himself of the above quotation. There would be just a chance that he was kidding if he pulled it verbally, but if he sent it to you via Wireless — well, there would be but •ne answer, “bughouse.” At least that would be your natural surmise, and you little know how wrong you would be. For instance, the government weather bureau at Washington receives just such messages every day in the year. And the weather bureau men know that these apparently “dippy” messages are really an important part of a great and intricate system which Uncle Sam supports to tell the people of the United States what the day ie going to bring forth in the matter of weather.

As a matter of fact, “Colic, Dalmatian,” etc., when translated, signifies that the steamer Monterey is saying that at 7:00 a. m. on the seventh of the month, she is in latitude 22 degrees 52 minutes; that the barometer is 30.04, temperature 80; that the wind is northeast, blowing 14 miles an hour, and that the sky is clear. Rather an original and unique way of saying it, is it not? It is a mighty slick little organization, this weather bureau of the department of agriculture. It keeps a small army of experts busy from seven o’clock in the morning until midnight every day in the year keeping track of just what Old Man Weather is up to, cataloguing all hie idiosyncrasies and doping out what new caper he is about to cut up. No ghost of an atmospheric disturbance, no storm wraith or cold wave apparition can stalk abroad in any cranny of the states, nowadays, without being instantly pounced upon by the nearest bureau, and its wouldbe secret maneuvers spread broadcast to other stations that they may expect its coming and set in motion their machinery for doping out the exact time of its appearance. It was only comparatively recently that the efficiency of the weather bureau was enhanced by an arrangement between the department and many of the big ■teamship lines to send semi-daily weather reports from vessels at sea beyond a distance of 75 miles from port

» Many people have an idea that there is something mysterious and occult >bout the work of the weather bureau In forecasting the coming of storms, frosts and floods. Not a few think that the observers must necessarily get their data by reading the planets, the stars and the moon. As a matter of fact the forecaster of the bureau foretells the coming of disturbances in a businesslike way, very similar to that in which a man who has ordered a shipment of goods would estimate the date of its arrival.

Suppose a business man fed ordered a carload of pineapples from the Hawaiian islands. He would know the average time it would take the steamer to make the trip to the Pacific port, the average time for unloading and loading into refrigerator cars, and the average number of days to be allowed these cars for their trip across the continent to New York. His estimate, however, would be subject to error, because the steamship might be delayed by tog, or the cars might meet with' an accident.

Storms, like pineapples, as a rule do not originate in the United States. They come to us, some from the Philippines, Japan, Siberia, Alaska, Canada or the Gulf of Mexico. The weather bureau gets cable, telegraphic or wireless notice of a foreign storm. Station after station, or vessel after vessel reports the storm’s arrival in its neighborhood, so that the general direction and rate of progress can be determined very early. In fact, the

arrival of some storms can be foretold ten days in advance. The forecasters watch for the region of low barometer, which is the storm center around which the winds blow. This wfiirl or edd/ moves bodily forward with the general-eastward drift of about 650 miles a day in our latitudes. As the lines of equal pressure (Isobars) around the low center crowd closer together, the winds attending the storm Increase in force. The forecaster determines the direction of movement of the storm and its velocity. When weather disturbances are reported, the forecasters know from experience about how long it takes them to reach our Pacific coast, and then how long after they will reach the Atlantic coast For example, if a storm coming from Siberia drifts eastward around the North pole and reappears in Alaska, it should appear in Washington and Oregon in about two days; should get to the great lakes in six days and to the Atlantic coast in seven or eight days.

Unexpected conditions may delay storms or divert them from the straight track just as a refrigerator car may be thrown off its schedule or be shipped by accident on a wrong road. Some of these storms deplete themselves by running into regions of high barometer which are of greater magnitude and extent than the storm itself. Some of them, however, travel completely around the world. To keep tab on cold waves that come into the United States from Canada and Alaska, the! weather bureau studies the Canadian weather reports. England sends reports from Iceland,4he British islands and continental Europe, and daily reports come from St. Petersburg on the conditions in Russia and Siberia.

The same businesslike system used

In tracing the track of a storm is applied in determining the arrival of frosts. Flood forecasts are made in much the same way. Information as to the amount of rainfall at the head waters of streams that cause floods are covered by telegraphic reports sent by local observers. As this rain reaches the main channel, the height of the water in the channel is determined by successive gauging stations. Past records establish how much a height, say of 20 feet at Dubuque, lowa, will produce at Davenport, another station 80 miletudown the Mississippi. This plan is followed all the way down the river, and at each point full allowance is made for the effects of water from tributaries, and from additional and local rainfall. As a result of these observations in the recent flood, the people of Cairo had warning a week or ten days in advance. The Pittsburgh district can be given only 12 to 24 hours’ notice, because a flood is upon them within 24 hours after a heavy rainstorm. To carry on this work of forecasting storms, frosts and floods, there are established throughout the United States 200 branch bureaus, each with apparatus for measuring rainfall, wind, etc., and with a circulating system of information between them that twice every 24 hours swaps observations, each with the other 199. Briefly, forecasting of the modern school is resolved into watching the course of great disturbances and calculating their probable movements and the time it will take them to cover given distances. But then there is a good deal of the forecaster’s work more subtle than this. For instance, it recently has been discovered that there is a remarkable interplay between atmospheric phenomena in widely separated regions. The state of the barometer in Siberia in winter,is found to be related in an intimate way to the existence and progress of storms in the United States at the same time. And now the modern forecasters are reaching out into other continents for their storm warnings and prognostications.