Evening Republican, Volume 15, Number 92, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 18 April 1911 — THE ROMANCE OF THE CENSUS [ARTICLE+ILLUSTRATION]

THE ROMANCE OF THE CENSUS

BY PROF. BERNARD J. CIGRAND

6 . - . * 'n*' * 'r * ■■' A HE future greatness of the United States .as a nation of world-wide power is a theme B—- that has been exploited by many orators, poets and artists in days gone by; but the following quite unknown lines from the quill of Philip Freneau —written prior to the : Declaration of Independence—merit especial notice now that a national census is a nearing completion: , "I see, I see! cgffirS- Freedom's established reign, cities and men ■ ‘ Numerous as sands upon the ocean shore, ; i And empires rising where the sun descends! Tha Ohio soon shall glide by many a town Of note! and where the Mississippi’s stream J‘ ; ' By forests shaded, now runs sweeping on, ' v k -" Nations shall grow, and states not less in faxn# Than Greece add Rome of old.” verse, composed before the union of the 13 colonies, was probably criticised by the practical men of the authors generation as. i i Hi being manufactured from Che “stuff that | dreams are made of.” But to Freneau’s inspired r1 | *LrTO|P lp vision the changes he foretold were clearly out- ii lined in time’s magic mirror. If the poet were . alive today and could read -the marvelous . census figures which come daily from our fedoral capitol he would find not only every word M||. ife. - -■ of his prophecy fulfilled, but discover that des- • H tiny had added even greater surprises to the .g .»*.”&. prediction. \\\ «|fpf .. -S;.. -,"llfS^fl The first national census was taken during W - Washington’s administration in 1790. Jefferson, IpfFftji then secretary of state and under whose dlrec- UmHhHl‘ ’ *c ' lion the count was made, expressed disappoint- vlllMßr' ment when the final figures—3,929,2l4—were VftjKlvv* BPllm 11 shown him. On August 24, 1791, he wrote to U William Carmichael as follows: "I inclose you a copy of our census, which so far as It is written in black ink is founded WMkaife on actual returns; what is in red ink being ' - jlllßlillll conjectural but very near the truth. Mak- A ® '**s.*£** ing very small allowance for omissions, which

we know to have heen very great, we may safely say we are above four millions.” Thomas Jefferson personally assumed the responsibility of correcting the firßt census, and with red Ink made Increases in figures, as well as supplying such other numbers as he deemed correct. He then, in his official capacity, informed the world through our foreign representatives that the federal count was inedbmet, but with his additions and amendations could be relied on. When the second count was completed Jefferson was president, and a letter written by him in 1801 contains the following assertions: “You will perceive that the increase of numbers (population) during the last ten years—l79o-1800—proceeding in geometrical ratio, promises rapid growth, and the prospect it holds up to us, not with a view to the Injuries it may enable us to do others in some future day, but to the settlement of the extensive country still remaining vacant.” This second census was Intensely gratifying to Jefferson and he assumed the role of prophet again, but proved over-enthusiastic when he declared that the American population would continue to Increase at the same ratio. Such was not the case, nor is there any such definite thing as an exact ratio in population Increase. In 1813 he wrote to Humboldt: “In fifty years more (1863) the United States alone will contain fifty millions of inhabitants.” But the population in 1863 was figured at 33,218,117, showing that Jefferson’s reliance on a definite ratio increase led him about 17,000,000 too high. In 1815 we find Jefferson writing as follows to Mr. Maury: “Forty millions in forty years, and In sixty years eighty millions! This would be 1815 plus 60, making it in 1875 as 80,000,000.’’ But at that date the enumeration resulted in 44,386,207, or about 36,000,000 below Jefferson's estimate. Jefferson was a careful student of natural Increase in the human family, but his knowledge as t'O what death, marriage and immigration would do for a nation was meager. If that great statesman could not, form a fair calculation. It is safe to say that It would be a hopeless Job for anyone to indulge In predictions of what the population will be fifty years hence, according to geometric ratio. Abraham Lincoln was another chief executive who endeavored to solve the population puzzle. Like Jefferson, he attempted to indicate the exact figures, but acquitted himself with more credit in the problem of human fluctuations. LJncpln at one time practically proposed an amendment to the constitution of the United. States, with a view to emancipating the slaves, and paying the southern owners a reasonable purchase price. He pointed out that after the slaves had passed Into the possession of the federal government they could be liberated, and the dreadful civil strife thus be brought to a close. Xn endeavoring to further this project Lincoln set ouf to foretell the greatness in population of the federal unkra

at the census periods of 1900-1910 (present census), 1920 and 1930- The argument he sent to congress in 1862 read as follows: “The aggregate sum necessary for compensated emancipation, of course, would be large. But it would require no ready cash, nor bonds even, any faster than the emancipation progresses. This might not and probably would not close before the end of the 37 years; at that time we shall probably have a hundred millions to share the burden, instead of thirty-one millions as now. And not only so, but the increase of population may be expected to continue for a long time after that period as rapidly as before, because our territory will not have become, full.” He then proceeded to analyze the problem of population increase, and decided that the population of the United States grows at the decennial ratio of 34.60 per cent. He submitted the following table to verify his deductions: Increase _ Population Per ct. 1790 ..... 3.929,827 }BOO 6,306,937 88.02 1810 7,239,814 86.46 1820- 9,638,131 33.13 1830 ....12,866,020 33.49 18<0 17,069,463 32.67 1860-. .23,191,876 85.87 1860 31,443.790 36.68 He 'then added: "It is seen that the ratio of increase at no one of these periods is either two per cent, below or two per cent above the average, thus shoeing how inflexible and consequently how reliable the law of increase in our case (country) is. Assuming that it will continue, it gives the following results: Population. 1870 42.823,341 MW 66,967,216 1890- 76,677.872 1900 103,208.416 1919 138.918.626 1»» 188,984.336 1930 261,680,914 According to Lincoln the census of 1910 should net 138,918,526 people, but, like Jehdrson, "Old Abe” was millions too high in his estimate. The latest census returns from Washington, subject to further correction, places the total at 91,972,266, which would show Lincoln’s calculation to have overshot the mark by 46,946,260. However, it is only fair to remember that Lincoln’s estimates were based on the possibility of the war coming, to a sudden termination after the people had learned of his indentions regarding the slave purchase. But .the, death struggle went forward relentlessly, and nothing was done toward carrying out the life-saving and humane policy advocated by the great president Therefore the above decrease from his estimates must be allowed to his credit, since hundreds of thousands of the male population were killed outright on the battlefields, and others died later as a result of their wounds, or disease contracted through the privations they suffered. It was the flower of youth that was offered as sacrifice to the war-god by both north and south, and It is an interesting surmise as to what extent the contamination of the fratlcidal strife decreased the population. A su-

perficial estimate would easily make the loss at ten million, placing the population of 1910 at 101,972,266 —or about 38,000,000 less than Lincoln’s actual count. The next and last president to show definite interest in the population problem was William McKinley. His remarks on the subject are historical, since he was the first of our chief executives to estimate the equation of population on the basis of the meaning of the signature of the nation, or the great seal of the United States. In 1899, just prior to the census of 1900, President McKinley was the guest of Chicago. He was called upon to respond to the toast, “The Great Seal of the United States,” and spoke in part, as follows: “On the reverse side of the great seal of the United States authorized by congress June 20, 1782, and adopted as the seal of the United States of America after its formation under the federal constitution, is a pyramid, signifying strength and duration.” Having described the meanings of the additional emblem, the president continued: "In peace we have been signally blessed, and our progress has gone on unchecked and ever increasing in the Intervening years. In boundless wealth of soil and mine and timber nature has favored us, while all races of men of every nationality and climate have contributed their good blood to make the nation what it is. From 3,920,214 in 1790, our population has grown to upward of 62,000,000 in 1890, and our estimated population today made by the governors of the states is 87,803,231. “We have grown from 13 states to 45. We have annexed every variety of territory, from the coral reefß and cocoanut groves of Key West to the icy regions of northern Alaska.” After dwelling on the immensity of the population and its future destiny, he concluded: “After 123 years the pyramid stands unbroken. - It has had some severe shocks, but it remains immovable. It had endured the storms of war, cnly to be stronger. It stands firmer and gives greater promise of duration than when the fathers made it the symbol of their faith." President McKinley was correct in stating that the founders of our nation adopted the design of an unfinished pyramid, over which was placed the eye of Providence, and beneath it the date 1776, with a later motto setting forth the idea of a "new order of thing*.’’ But he omitted to mention that the reverse or pyramid side of the great seal was never engraved, arid neVer employed as a part pf the signature of the nation. Spch (s the case, however, and therefore the unfinished pyramid is an unknown factor in heraldic Americana. . The forefathers intended this, device to mean that not any generation of Am4ricans would see the apex or drest of population—that it would go on to eternity, and the cope-stones of our population’s strength and republican triumphs be placed by divine and not human hands. It was a grand symbolic conception, but eagerness to possess a seal, and slowness in having it executed, changed our'national signature from a seal enpendant to a seal enplacard, thus robbing later generations of a splendid emblem of power and numerical 1 greatness. Nothing Illustrates the magnificent march of western civilization better than the discussion In congress immediately following the census of 1880, and the said discussion also portrays the progress in transportation, as well as the western spread of population. At that date a Mr. Stnytb of Virginia.

while addressing the house of representatives regarding the advisability of lending aid to or showing interest lp the region west of the Stony mountains —as the “Rockies” were then called—made the following assertions: “This federation of states can never be safely extended beyond the Stony mountains. I can conceive that mutual Interest in the Mississippi valley may, because of common river facilities, help bind the people to the union; but beyond the mountains —I can see a few states formed Just west and bordering on the Mississippi—but further west the federation system must not be attempted.” In the senate Mr. Dickerson of New Jersey also entered a vigorous protest In these Words: “The distance that a member, of congress from the state of Oregon (all west; of the Rocky mountains was then known as Oregon) would be obliged to. travel in coming to the seat of government ami returning home would be 9,200 miles. If he should travel at the rate of thirty miles a day it would require 306 days; allowing for Sundays forty-four, and It would amount to 350 days. This would allow the member a fortnight to rest himself at Washington before he should commence his Journey home. It would be more expeditious, however, to come by water around Cape Horn, or to pass through Behring straits round the north coast of this continent to Baffin’s bay, thence through Davis' straits to the Atlantic, and so on to Washington. It Is true that this passage is not yet discovered, except on our maps, but It will be, as soon as Oregon becomes a state.” The concluding words of Mr. Dickerson’s address were, of course, spoken in sarcastic vein. At the time of this unique argument the geographic center of the United States was at a point near Pittsburg, while the center of population was at a point nineteen miles southwest of Moorfield, West Virginia. In eighty years the geographic center haß been moved westward to a point northwest of the center of Kansas, while the center of pop ulation is at Nashville, Brown county, Indiana. Strange indeed are the changes which have taken place since 1830, and remarkable the transformation from the census of 1790 —when the geographic center was near Washington city’s present location, and the center of population marked as twen-ty-three Wiles east, not west, of the city of Baltimore. Odd as It may seem, the movement of the center of population follows close to the old “Mason and Dixon’s line,” the boundary between Pennsylvania and Maryland, which was established as early as 1763. This line was practically the imaginary division between the slave and free states. John Randolph said: “This Mason and Dixon’s line Is the partition between those who make slavery profitable, and those who could not make it profitable,” and ever afterward the line was referred to as the bounds of the slave and anti-slave states. The centers of population have traveled nearly parallel with it, an jspt illustration of how closely balanced were the contending forces In the federal and antlfederal sentiments of 1861. From 1790 to 1800 the center moved westward forty-one miles, landing it about Washington, which was practically the geographical center also. In 1810 the center shifted to forty miles northwest of the national capital; In 1820 It had moved fifty miles, locating sixteen miles north of Woodstock, Virginia. In 1880, traveling thirty-nine miles, we find it nineteen miles southwest of Moorfield, West Virginia; while In 1840, a jump of fiftyfive miles places it sixteen miles south of Clarksburg, W. Va. In 1850, a move of fifty-five milee. sets it twen-ty-three miles southeast of Parkersburg, W. Va. ▲ remarkable Journey of eighty-two miles In 1860 placed; it twenty miles strath of Chilllcothe, Ohio; but the terrible Intervention of the life-destroying Civil war Is seen in 1870, when It moved only forty-two miles, landing at forty-eight miles northwest of Cincinnati, Ohio. In 1880 the center shifted to a point eight miles west of Cincinnati, after traveling fifty-eight miles. In 1890 It had gone west forty-eight miles, arriving twenty miles east of Columbus, Indiana; in 1900 It went but fifteen miles, landing at Wlggs, Indians; and the official records of 1910 show the center of population located at Nashville, Brown county, Indiana. In order to determine exactly how strong the nation Is at present, and to get at an approximate estimate of our assembled under the Stars and Stripes, the government is new laboring with

mmSj&hfniji indefatigable zeal to ■ : • fill count and systematize 111 the census of 1919. An army of experts is eagerly toiling to bring pl|«-i»l forth the figures in which not only Amerlcans, but the world at Mjißa large, is interested. Upon the result depends more than the average reader realizes. It is impossible for anyone to determine the influence the census figures will have upon the educational, political and religious interests of the people. These numerals will affect every state, county, city, town, village and hamlet in the union. The size of the United States senate, as well' as many state senates, will be immediately enlarged, and in a few cases diminished. The national house of representatives and state assemblies will also Bhare in this change. Even states will be bounded differently, and the internal outlines of the present map of our country will undergo most drastic alterations. Governors of certain states are anxiously anticipating subdivisions of their respective domains. Each fears the setting up of another state government on the east, west, north or south of his present undisputed territory. The s&e of our army, the strength of onr navy, will be shaped Into accord with the findings of the household of Uncle Sam. Millions of books are being held over in the press until such time as the exact and official Information of this census Is made public. Absolutely nothing which the government does seems to have so far reaching a power, and exerts such an influence on the destinies of the nation as the taking of the census; and nothing is accepted with such calm indifference by the people concerned in Its findings. Like the Passion Play, It is in evidence every ten years; and not unlike the business inventory which takes place etery year, it establishes untold changes, causes many unforeseen alterations, and brings to the surface valuable details of both retrogression and progression. Trivial and profound themes alike receive earnest attention. Even the oft recurring argument that the capitol of the United States is not centrally located will be thoroughly threshed out In many columns of space ere the official report of the census is sent broadcast through our land.