Democratic Sentinel, Volume 18, Number 39, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 12 October 1894 — SIGNAL SERVICE. [ARTICLE]

SIGNAL SERVICE.

OUR WEATHER BUREAU THE BEST IN THE WORLD. It Is Right Just Seven Times In Ten.-Method of Conducting the Various Observations. It has been shown that the percentage of verifications of rain, temperature, wind and cold wave forecasts of the United States Weather Bureau are misleading only about two or three times out of ten, and, considering the uncertainty of the elements with which weather prophets have to deal, this result must be admitted to be remarkable. In 1892 the service predicted rain within 24 hours in different places 4,844 times, and 71.2 per cent of these forecasts were verified. Rain within 48 hours was predicted 444 times, and 58 per cent of these rains were forthcoming. In 1898 5,850 rain storms within 24 hours were announced, and 78.5 per cent of them occurred. Only 75 storms were forecast two days ahead, and 62.6 per cent of them camo on in time. Much bettor results were obtained in predicting the changes of the temperature. In 1891 80 per cent of the 24 hour forecasts were verified, and 84.8 per cent of the 48 hour forecasts. In 1891 81.9 per cent of the one-day prophecies came true, and 78.4 per cent of the two-day prophecies. In 1898 81.6 per cent of the one-day predictions were verified, and 78.1 per cent of the two-day predictions. With wind signals the result has been7l.l per cent, 77.6 percent and 77.6 per cent of successes in 1891, 1892 and 1898 respectively. Cold waves seem to be the most difficult to prophecy, for in 1891 only 65.2 per cent of these were foretold, in 1892 68.6 per cent and in 1898 64.7 per cent.

These forecasts and warnings are based upon observations taken at 8 a. m. and 8 p. m. daily, seventy-fifth meridian time, at 124 stations in the United States and nineteen in Canada, the reports being promptly wired to the central office at Washington and several of the more Important Weather Bureau stations and to the Canadian central office at Toronto. Special arrangements are made during the West India cyclone season to get early warning by telegraph of storms in that region. The manner of taking these observations is laid down in exact rules and is done at the same time and in the same way at all the different stations. The work of observation is begun at the proper time, and the observers perform their duties simultaneously. Within a specified time the reports are filed o,t the telegraph offices and placed upon circuits which are set apart entirely for this business. The deciphering of the reports and the making of charts showing the results of the observations are begun at 8.45 a. in. and 8.45 p. m. daily by trained experts at Washington. The forecast official stands ready when the charts are completed to dictate a statement of their general and special features, to prepare forecasts for the various districts and to issue such signal orders as the conditions may require. His dictated report is set in type within forty-five minutes and within a very brief space of time every telegraph station in the United States is supplied with the result of the work of this vast system, and the press associations furnish the newspapers with a regular forecast and warning and also any special features that are of sufficient interest to print. Weather and temperature, cold-wave and frost signals, are communicated at the expense of the Government to special display men at selected points exclusive of the Weather Bureau.

Messages are also telegraphed to 2,129 railroad stations and 620 other places, and are sent by mail to 6,065 points and delivered by railroad to 1,264 stations. The total number of places to which the forecasts or warnings are sent is 9,328. This number does not include thousands of persons and places who get their information direct from the local weather offices throughout the country, nor doos it take in 121 points on the sea coast and the shores of the Great Lakes, where danger signals are posted. There is another branch of the weather service of which the people in large cities know very little, but which is of great importance to the farmer. This is the State Weather Service, organized for the collection and publication of information relating not only to the w’eather, but also to the crops. State bureaus are dependent almost entirely upon the voluntary efforts of intelligent citizens, whose labor is furnished Without compensation, and w’hose individual reports are received at the central stations, compared and summarized in such a way as to form the basis of general reports. Monthly reviews of the prevailing weather condition are published, and bulletins are issued weekly during the planting, cultivating and harvesting of crops, telling the most important facts about the weather, with their probable effect upon the growing crops from week to week. This service in many States also has the cooperation of an agricultural station, and the weekly bulletins contain information with regard to pests that imperil the crops and the best way of treating them. Many of these volunteer observers are farmers, some of them are doctors, and others are men who have only a private interest in keeping a record of the weather. It may be said that their work is generally thorough, their reports concise and their observations valuable. Some of them are furnished with a set of instruments, and many others are not.

As there are less than 175 meteorological stations in the United States that are conducted by paid observers, each one of these stations has to cover about 22,000 square miles of land, and the data supplied by this means would be very inadequate were it not for the information that is furnished through the State Weather Service. The latter work began in lowa as early as 1875, and in Missouri in 1878, but |;he system has not been sufficiently general to be of great value for more than twelve or thirteen years. It is now a rule that the weather crop reports are mailed by the correspondents so as to reach the

central stations on Tuesday morning, and so far as possible they cover the weather record up to Monday night. They are quickly summarized, and comments upon them are made in short order, and thp State crop bulletins are promptly and widely disseminated. Of course, the report for each State is also sent to Washington to help out the National Weather Bureau. To the farmer these reports are of more benefit than they are to any one else, because they supply him with a means of knowing accurately the condition of crops in other neighborhoods than their own, and they also enable him to estimate somewhat the conditions of the market for his goods.