Democratic Sentinel, Volume 17, Number 50, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 29 December 1893 — AREA WILL DECREASE [ARTICLE]

AREA WILL DECREASE

PROBABLE RESULT OF THE DEPRESSED WHEAT MARKET. FooUsh Terror of Speculators Caused by the Visible Supply—Some Facts and Figures—Funeral of General Bosk—The Detroit Fire. Hope for the Bolls. The wheat trade according to the Chicago Post, is squatting in the shadow of a “visible supply” of 77,000000 bushels—that is to say, that many bushels are “in sight" in the public warehouses at the present time, to say nothing of many more million bushels in private elevators. This great mountain of wheat, subject to the call of consumers, has' driven every other consideration into the background. It has discouraged speculative investment and induced farmers to rush their surplus upon a reluctant and sorely pressed market as though fearful they might not be able to get anything for the grain unless they hurried. Producers are panic-stricken, and during the first twenty weeks of the current crop year, beginning July 1, a larger percentage of wheat has been shipped out of first hands than on any previous crop in the history of the grain trade. The wheat markets have been in the dumps all summer and fall, in spite of the fact of a short crop, and nothing seems able to lift them out of the slough. Yet when the current statistics bearing on the wheat trade are analyzed in cold,blood and with judicial impartiality, they are not particularly terrifying. At the beginning of the 1892 crop year, July 1, the visible supply was 24,262,000 bushels. Last July there were 62,316,000 bushels “in sight.” During the twenty weeks that have elapsed since the beginning of July the visible supply has increased 14,437,000 bushels; last year, for the corresponding period, tho increase was 45,274,030 bushels. Owing to the fact that it. started 38,000,000 lower down the scale than this year, the aggregate on the corresponding date a year ago was less than now, and many who only look at the daily and weekly statements of stocks, not thinking or caring to inquire further, imagine that there has been a deluge of grain and that the “visible” is likely to reach 100,000,000 bushels or more. Yet comparisons show that during the twenty weeks from July 1 to Nov. 17 the movement of wheat from first hands, as gauged by the receipts at the leading Western points, aggregated 90,000,000 bushels, against 145,000,000 bushels the corresponding twenty weeks of 1892, a decrease of 55,000,000 bushels.

The next thirty days will determine whether reserves are in a bad state < f impoverishment. Farmers’ deliveries have already run down to small proportions. Prices at the present level are said by experts to be below the cost of production. People are not in the farming business to raise grain at a loss, any more than manufacturers are in industrial line 3 from philanthropic motives. Hence it is for a series of years the area devoted to Ihe raising of wheat in this country has been undergoing a process of gradual shrinkage. Shrinkage of Wheat Area. The wheat area of 1892 was 1,350,000 acres less than 1891 and the area of 1893 was further reduced 4,000,000 acres. Advices from thousands of country correspondents in the great Western States foreshadow another reduction, the acreage for 1894 being estimated at 5 to 7 per cent, less than this year. Farmers have cut down their winter wheat acreage everywhere. Continued low prices until spring would be reflected in a diminished spring wheat breadth also, according to the information of those in closest touch with the great Northwest.

The following tables compiled from reports of the United States Department of Agriculture show the relations between low prices and decreased production. They afford a fruitful subject for study and thoughtful consideration. The tables are: CROP AND FARM PRICES. Average Year. Crop, bu. farm price. 1803 390,000,000 »63.0 1892 616,000,000 63.2 1891 612,000,000 86.3 1890 400,000.000 83.9 1889 490,000,000 09.8 1888 414,000,000 92.6 1887 456,359,000 68.1 1886 407,218,000 68.7 •Estimated. GRADUAL REDUCTION IN AREA. Spring Winter Total Year. acreage. acreage. acreage. 1893 11,841,000 22,784,000 34,624,000 1892 12,565,000 25,989,000 38,654,000 1891 13,336,000 26,581,000 39,917,000 1890 12,567,000 23,520,000 30,087,000 1889 12,719,01 0 25,385,000 38,104,000 1888 13,283,000 23,954,000 37,237,000 1887 13,419,000 2(,223,C00 37,642,000 1886 12,274,000 24,532,000 36,706,000 Unless signs fail the wheat area next year will not evceed 33,000,000 acres, which at the average rate of production per acre would yield about 425,000,000 bushels. Assuming that the surplus of this and former years will be run down to a low ebb by the beginning of another crop year, a crop of only 425,000,000 bushels would leave less than 75,000,000 bushels for export, or less than half the average of recent years. With diminished production the long down-trodden bulls feel that they would have a right to expect an inning. It has been a “powerful long time arcomin’.”