Democratic Sentinel, Volume 8, Number 28, Rensselaer, Jasper County, 8 August 1884 — A Modern Prophet. [ARTICLE]

A Modern Prophet.

The test of a science is the ability to predict. We believe the astronomer, because he is able to foretell within the fraction of a second when an eclipse will begin and when it will end. We put faith in the chemist, also, for we find by experience that, when he puts certain atoms of matter together, a certain result is sure to follow. Water, for instance, is composed of two gases, oxygen ami hydrogen. Spiritualism is discredited, because its prophets and mediums cannot foretell. Some of the sciences are so far impel feet that its professors cannot predict with oonfi dence. We know a great deal about the weather, for instance, but the Washington Weather Bureau is ofren mistaken in ts forecasts. Much has been sa d as to the possibility of founding a science of society; but it is conceded that, as yet, the sociologists have not dared to claim they could read the future. All this is apropos of a person who has appeared in Ohio, who makes a claim that he has discovered the law which shows the variations in the prices of commodities. His name is Samuel Benner. He published a book in 1875, in which he made a forecast of the prices of iron, grain, hogs, and cotton, up to the year 1891. It must be confessed that he has so far proved remarkably accurate, He said the price of iron would be lowest in 1877—that it would advance and be at its maximum in lfcßi- and that it would then

shrink in value until 1887 or *BB. This forecast has not been proved false np to date. Aocording to the hypothesis of this modern prophet of prices, the market value of prices tells the story of the prosperity or otherwise of a given period. When iron is in demand aud its price is advancing, there is a business boom nnder way, and vice ve sa. Iron is the key to the industrial s tuation, for when there is work to do tools are required. Now Mr. Benner argue* that the variations in the price of iron are subject to a law of periodicity. Panics occur in periods varying from eighteen to twenty-one years. For instance, we had them in 1887, 1857, and 1673, and the next one is dne in 1891. The really prosperous years, according to Mr. Benner, are very few. The boom lasts only for a brief period. The intervening years are a record of depressed business and general suffering. If there is anything in Mr. Benner’s theory, men in business are justified in engaging in new enterprises wheu the price of iron is advancing; bat they suould be careful when the iron industry is under a cloud.—Demores t’s Monthly.