Banner Graphic, Volume 20, Number 277, Greencastle, Putnam County, 30 July 1990 — Page 2

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THE BANNERGRAPHIC July 30,1990

Browning says he didn’t predict quake, only chance

But pros question > his techniques > ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) holds dozens of patents in several specialties, but it’s . his earthquake projections that are stirring up notoriety he says he’d rather do without ... Browning said at a conference in Missouri last . year there was a high probability of an earthquake along the New Madrid Fault this Dec. 2. The fault ex- , tends through portions of western Kentucky, Arkan- , -sas, Missouri, Illinois, Mississippi, Indiana and Ten- . nessee. >; He was deluged by calls. , HE INSISTS HE DID NOT predict an earthquake. »,;• “The public always wants everything in black and white,” Browning said. “No one can tell you there is going to be an earthquake on Dec. 2, no one can know that. ... > 'Everybody knows when he drives a car that he’s a risk that it will malfunction or crash. Yet - people do drive cars. They’re dealing in probabilities.” Browning, 72, a large man with a graying burr > ihaircut, says the public does not understand and <the media does not know how to communicate the • idea of probability. “THE CLOSEST YOU CAN translate probability •-into English is ‘maybe.’ But unless you say ‘maybe not,’ they take it as an absolute,” he said.

Horse track yet to leave starting gate; maybe for ’92

* INDIANAPOLIS (AP) More <han a year after it was made legal, Ahorse racing with pari-mutuel is still struggling to get out of the starting gate in Indiana. Although some supporters of pari-mutuel racing had hoped to see it begin by late this year or 1991, the earliest possible post time appears now to be 1992, and that estimate could be optimistic, say people involved in racing. “RACING IN *9l is out or very, very marginal,” said Michael G. Schaefer, chairman of the Indiana Horse Racing Commission. “Anytime we approve an application, it’s going to take 18 months to two years to build a track.”

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Browning is chief scientist for Summa Medical Corp., an Albuquerque biotechnology research and development company. His Summa resume says he holds 66 U.S. and foreign patents in optics, electronics, mechanics, chemistry, electro-optics, hydraulics and educational toys. Summa credits him he won’t discuss what he does for the company with developing new technology for compressing electronically transmitted human speech. OVER THE YEARS, HE’S been a development physicist with American Optical Co., worked in optics for Bell Aircraft Corp, and was a scientist for Sandia National Laboratories. But gradually his interest in climatology grew, and he now publishes the Browning Newsletter on world climate. His formal training was elsewhere: a bachelor’s degree in math and physics from Southwest Texas State University, and a master’s degree in bacteriology physiology and a doctorate in physiology, genetics and bacteriology from the University of Texas at Austin BUSINESS NEEDS CLIMATE information because the weather determines how much food will be produced and where, whether the transportation industry can get over the roads, whether anything can be built, he said. He provided forecasts for the 1989 edition of the Rocky Mountain Almanac and “did as well or better than the Old Farmers’ Almanac predictions,” said Lee Olson, almanac editor. Browning said his climatological observations are

“We’re pushing it farther down the road,” said Senate Finance Chairman Lawrence M. Borst, an Indianapolis Republican who was the longtime sponsor of pari-mutuel legislation. “I thought we would have it this year, this fall.” Schaefer, Borst and others interested in getting racing started in Indiana say several obstacles have slowed what some had hoped would be a sprint to develop a track or tracks. THE COMMISSION’S administrative work in preparing for racing has taken longer than anticipated and changes suggested by developers and the commission to make track development more likely didn’t win legislative approval this year. The commission, a five-member board appointed last August, has approved rules, regulations and application forms for people seeking racing dates but is waiting to take applications until an executive secretary can be hired. “The governor made the statement proceed with due diligence but don’t make any mistakes. Well, so far, I don’t think we’ve made any mistakes because we haven’t got that much done,” said Schaefer. A SMALL BUDGET still hampers the commission’s ability to do its work, and the commission has run into difficulty in trying to find an executive secretary. Last week, the person offered the job of executive secretary turned it down. Now, a new series of interviews is likely, said Schaefer.

SEN. LAWRENCE BORST Sending people to Bayh

“Unfortunately, it’s set us back,” Schaefer said of the search for an executive secretary. “We were hoping to get this guy on board in the next couple of weeks. We’re right back to square one now. “WE HAVE AN OFFICE, rules and regulations and the permit application ready to go. All we need is for someone to take those things and get to work on them,” he said. The law also presents obstacles to track development because the statute calls for a pari-mutuel tax rate higher than developers would like and doesn’t permit off-track betting, which some developers believe is necessary if a major track is going to be financially viable.

It’s a reputation we’re proud of. We want to be people who can help. Whether you come in to ask directions, open a checking or savings account, or finance a building project, you’ll find the friendly smiles, that undivided attention, and the service that have gained us this reputation. Keep it in mind, customer or not. And the next time you need our kind of help, come in. You talk. We listen, and more. We understand, and we help. Remember that, helping is what we do best at your Bank for Life.

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based on high tidal forces, produced by four causes: the proximity of the moon to Earth; the proximity of Earth to the sun; the alignment of the Earth, moon and sun during the full moon and new moon; and the more perfect alignment of those bodies during eclipses. The vector sum would be the total tidal force produced. SUCH FORCES CAN TRIGGER earthquakes, he said, and on Dec. 2, there will be the highest vector sum high tidal force in 60 years from 30 to 60 degrees north latitude. That area includes the New Madrid Fault, running roughly from Marked Tree, Ark., through New Madrid, Mo., to Cairo, 81. The most dramatic quake along the fault occurred near New Madrid, Mo., in 1811 and 1812, reshaping the Mississippi River and forcing it to run backward for a time. Since last year, when Browning raised the possibility of a December New Madrid quake, the Arkansas National Guard has scheduled earthquake exercises for around that time, one Arkansas school district is considering canceling classes and sales of earthquake insurance have picked up. BUT BROWNING SAID whether a given fault is actually triggered would depend on the pressure built up along it That information should come from area seismologists, he said firmly. If no earthquake occurs in or around December, Browning said people will be more inclined to ignore the danger of the New Madrid Fault “That’s what I fear more than anything else,” he said. “People don’t trust authorities anymore; they never did trust them much. Why should they? What

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GOV. EVAN BAYH No enthusiastic support

So far, six prospective developers have been in touch with the commission, said Schaefer. But two proposals have drawn the most public attention. ANDREW STEFFEN, AN attorney who represents the Sagamore Park Group that wants to build a $45 million central Indiana track, said a lower tax rate, expanded rights to simulcast races from other tracks and limited authorization for off-track betting in special theaters are needed before his group’s project can go forward. “We are going to start getting ready to file our application for a permit, but we won’t be able to break ground until we get the chan-

have authorities done for them except tax them to death?” Browning’s earthquake projections are controversial among seismologists. KLAUS JACOB, SENIOR research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y., said correlating earthquakes to tidal forces doesn’t work. “It’s more likely that in the next 10 years or 20 years we’ll have something (quake activity), rather than on this particular day,” Jacob said. “You see, earthquakes don’t care about predictions. And people shouldn’t worry about predictions. They should worry about earthquakes.” Browning said he told a convention of chief executive officers in San Francisco on Oct 10, 1989, that there was a 50-50 chance of an earthquake registering 7 on the Richter scale on or about Oct. 16 because a high triggering force was expected that date and geologists had determined there was a strain on the San Andreas Fault. Jacob said: “He was just lucky. That’s the law of large numbers.” Arch Johnston, director of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State University in Tennessee, said Browning “is certainly not justified scientifically.” “The tidal force that Dr. Browning bases his theory on has been examined thoroughly by seismologists, and there’s no evidence that tidal forces can trigger earthquakes. ... Earthquakes depend on the internal processes of the Earth, not the external processes of the sun and moon.”

ges,” he said. “We had hoped to be farther along.” ANOTHER GROUP pushmg development of an $11.5 million track near Anderson believes it could go ahead without changes in the law. “We are willing to build and our developers are confident they can do it first class within the existing law,” said Don Seal. However, the Anderson proposal for a small track that would have only harness races might run into resistance from those who have expressed a preference for a larger facility that could stage races yearround for both harness and thoroughbred horses. “WHAT WE HAVE always said and what everyone involved in the legislation has said is the ultimate desire is to have a dual-purpose track if at all possible,” said Schaefer. “But we’re not going to prejudge anything. It might very well be Anderson is going to be the only proposal we receive or the best proposal,” said Schaefer. When applications are taken, the commission will also have to consider whether approving one track project will preclude development of any others. “THE ECONOMICS OF having two pari-mutuel tracks in close proximity is a legitimate question,” said Steffen. However, Seal believes the Anderson track could co-exist with a larger facility for thoroughbreds, and Borst agrees. But the development of the bigger track will depend on legislation, and the fate of that especially, the Sagamore group’s proposal for off-track betting is uncertain at best, said Borst. “My advice to all those individuals is to go see the governor,” said Borst “I THINK IF IT (pari-mutuel) would just go away, he would be happy,” Borst said of Gov. Evan Bayh. Fred Nation, the governor’s press secretary, said Bayh “is opposed to off-track” betting and “has not been the most enthusiastic supporter of further gambling beyond the lottery.” Nation said Bayh hasn’t done anything to promote pari-mutuel track development because he believes that’s up to private business and not the government to do. The administration also believes that unlike the lottery, expected to produce hundreds of millions of dollars for the state, pari-mutuel racing isn’t a high priority for the administration because the financial return for the state is expected to be small, said Nation.

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2 Live Crew too obscene for Kokomo KOKOMO, Ind. (AP) The album “As Nasty as They Wanna Be” by the rap group 2 Live Crew violates local standards of decency and shouldn’t be sold to minors in Howard County, a judge has ruled. The ruling by Judge Randy G. Hainlen came Friday after he reviewed an affidavit for probable cause submitted by Prosecutor James D. Andrews and listening to the tape in his chambers. IN JUNE, TWO members of 2 Live Crew were arrested in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., after they performed songs from “As Nasty as They Wanna Be.” According to Andrews’ affidavit, which was signed by Hainlen, the tape’s “lyrics are so filled with explicit and detailed verbal descriptions or narrative accounts of sexual excitement, or sexual conduct, along with timely moaning and groaning that they violate contemporary community standards of obscenity and are harmful to children.” A MEMBER OF the prosecutor’s staff purchased the cassette Wednesday from a Karma Records Tapes Tickets store, which displayed the tape on a shelf “that is easily and readily accessible to anyone who enters the store, including minors,” the affidavit said. However, an owner of the store said the company does not sell the tape to anyone under the age of 18.

Hoosier Lottery INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Here are the winning numbers selected Saturday, July 28 in the Hoosier Lottery and the Lotto Cash: Daily Three 9-1-5 Daily Four 1-6-9-7 Lotto Cash 2-5-7-16-41-44 Jackpot: $1.75 million Here are the winning numbers selected Sunday, July 29: Daily Three 0-4-8 Daily Four 0-9-4-3