Banner Graphic, Volume 9, Number 248, Greencastle, Putnam County, 25 June 1979 — Page 7

Will current Russian 'sukhovey' force another world grain supply squeeze?

By H.J. MAIDENBERG c. 1979 N.Y. Times News Service NEW YORK One of the most fearsome words for Russian farmers is sukhovey, their term for the hot, dry winds that wither crops and turn the earth to dust. A sukhovey has been sweeping the Soviet Union’s grain belt in recent weeks, and it is expected to force that country into making major grain purchases that could drive up the price of food around the globe. As it is, a 60-pound bushel of wheat that sold for $3.20 just two months ago in Chicago is now selling for delivery next month at $4.68, the highest price since mid-1975. And the demand for wheat has fueled similar price rises in other basic foodstuffs. Grain traders are again talking of the summer of 1972, when a particularly severe sukhovey that season caused the Soviet Union to import a record 1.2 billion bushels of grain, two-thirds of which came from this country. Smaller, but substantial, imports by China and the Indian subcontinent, whose crops also suffered that season, helped erase the world’s grain reserves almost overnight. Today, despite record or near-record worldwide wheat harvests every year since 1975, and huge American supplies, there is the prospect of yet another supply squeeze. The reasons were explained in a series of interviews with grain specialists during an industry conference in Kansas City, Mo., last week. "We, and I mean all the people on this planet, have been extremely lucky in recent years,” said Roderick Turnbull, a wheat expert at the Kansas City Board of Trade, “because

opinion

LARRY GIBBS Publisher

Anthony Lewis Oil reality different from Saudi Arabia view

By ANTHONY LEWIS c. 1979 N.Y. Times News Service RIYADH, Saudi Arabia According to surveys, millions of Americans think there is no shortage of oil products it is all a trick by the oil companies. As gasoline prices rise, people blame Washington. Independent truckers go on strike to demand lower prices for their diesel fuel. Reality looks different out here. In the region that supplies much of the Western world’s oil, two things are obvious. The producing countries are approaching the limits of what they want to what it is in their interest to bring out of the ground. And because the supply is limited and the world’s demand is not, prices are going even higher, sharply higher. The OPEC oil ministers meet next week in Geneva, and it takes no wizard to figure out in what direction they are going. The present official OPEC price of $14.55 is a myth except for Saudi Arabia; other countries are selling all they want to produce at sl7 or $lB or S2O a barrel. So the only questions are how much higher OPEC will go, and whether it will be able to agree on a single price structure at all. The omens are all about. First there was the statement by Kuwait’s oil minister that a “shock” at Geneva would be in the world’s interest. Sheikh Ali Khalifa alSabah said only a big OPEC increase, to something well over sl7 a barrel, would achieve two necessary objectives: to keep individual producing countries from adding their own surcharges, and to make the consuming world do something about conservation and alternative energy sources. “I’m afraid,” Sheikh Ali said, “that now in the United States there is a feeling that you could buy your way out by paying an additional two or three dollars.” He added that he was “frightened” on a visit to America last fall to realize that people did not know oil supplies were tightening. Then came the Saudi oil minister, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, warning that the persistent growth in world demand for oil was going to push the price to three or four times what it is now. “The rich could perhaps pay for such a luxurious commodity then,” he said. “But a deep, pervading, irreversible recession will be inescapable as poor nations are deprived of minimum supplies of this vital commodity because of their inability to pay.” The pre-eminent political figure in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Fahd, then dashed the idea that the largest producing countries might ease the pressure on supply by producing more oil. The Saudis had no plans to increase production, he said, and could not even think of doing so without “a great deal of study, research and deliberation.” All this is grim economic news for the West. Economists say that industrial growth in the world goes down about half a percentage point for every 10 or 15 percent increase in the price of oil. Some worry less about recession than about strains on the international monetary system. Then there is the inflationary effect of every oil price increase, so instantly reflected at the gas pump.

ERIC BERNSEE Managing Editor

In the circumstances there will be a natural tendency to be angry at the oilproducing countries to denounce OPEC and especially the Arab producers. Why won’t they pump more of their oil out of the ground? Americans will ask. The shorter answer is that self-interest, which Americans are taught produces the best results for all if followed in the marketplace, argues strongly against any more sharp production increases in this part of the world. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and the Gulf Sheikhdoms already face enormous problems in controlling the development they have undertaken in their underpopulated lands. To pour more money in could well be disastrous. To sell more oil but save the money could be just as unwelcome to the world; it would mean huge sums either out of financial circulation or used to take over vast assets in the West. And in an inflationary world dollars lose value while oil in the ground would gain. It is not just Arab rulers or oilmen who size up the realities this way. In the current issue of the American quarterly Foreign Policy, Alan L. Madian says we in the West ought to recognize that despite . the adverse effects on us, limited oil output and higher prices are “reasonable given the national interests of the oil-producers and the increasing scarcity of low-cost petroleum.” Moreover, it is better for the world to face the reality that oil is becoming scarce and expensive than to disguise it with subsidies or price controls. For the unpleasant truth is that only the reality will encourage the development of alternative energy sources which look expensive now but will not before long and make consumers, especially in the United States, less wasteful of oil.

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the recent record global harvests have just barely covered soaring world demand for grain-based food.” “The demand-supply picture is frightening,” he continued, noting that the world’s population is growing by 75 to 80 million a year, which would result in a 50 percent increase in just 20 years to six billion people, and that the living standards are rising even in the poorest countries. “On the supply side, the fact remains that there are only four countries responsible for 90 percent of the wheat exports today this country, Canada, Australia a d Argentina,” Turnbull added. A top officer of a major grain export house observed that the United States again supplied half the exported wheat in the recent crop year ended May 31, some 1.2 billion bushels. “Forget about Canada,” he said, “its 530 million bushels of available wheat have already been booked. So has Australia’s exportable surplus of 242 million, and Argentina’s 125 million bushels.” Thanks to the bumper wheat crops in recent years, the United States found itself with stocks of 922 million bushels at the start of this month. But the total was down 22 percent from a year earlier and it was the first decline for June 1 stocks in five years. The first of June is when the annual winter wheat harvest goes into full swing. Currently, the winter wheat crop, which accounts for 75 percent of the total bread grain supply in this country, is projected at 1.4 billion bushels. And Americans are again expected to consume about 850 million bushels of wheat in foodstuffs or as seed.

Parking needed near DePauw Student Union

A Greencastle facility that serves the university as well as surrounding communities is the DePauw Student Union, erected several years ago to honor the school’s war dead. Centrally located, it provides a meeting place not only for DePauw functions, but it is used for such public gatherings as luncheons, class reunions and a number of other day or night meetings held by those not directly connected with the university. BUT THE FULL potential of the Union for public use is hampered, in part, by yellow curb paint - parking places are at a premium at all times and non-existent much of the time. It is understandable that some of the former parking facilities are now off limits to provide fire lanes. Such gray curb that is left is filled by university personnel cars, and noon arrivals at the Union may have to settle for a parking space several blocks away. Adding to the parking congestion in university areas is the fact that a great number of students now bring cars. A few years ago, these were prohibited, and those who did bring wheels parked them in farm barns or other off-campus areas,

Russell Baker Two dozen hints to a woman near marriage

By RUSSELL BAKER c. 1979 N.Y. Times News Service NEW YORK Advice to a young woman on the threshold of marriage: 1. Leave a husband alone when he’s watching baseball and he’ll leave you alone when you’re watching the Miss America pageant. 2. Always watch the Academy Awards and the Super Bowl together so you’ll have something to talk about. 3. Don’t start complaining about the cockroaches when he wants to be praised. 4. When you wish he were a little bit more like Cary Grant, don’t mention it to him. 5. Wait until after breakfast to tell him you’ve decided to redecorate the living room. 6. Before quarreling about money take the gun out of the bedside table and lock it in the safe-deposit box at the bank. 7. If you’re going to make a habit of complaining because he leaves dirty socks on the bedroom floor, get in the habit of always putting the cap back on the toothpaste tube.

Since 1975, the American wheat inventory situation has changed dramatically, however. Roughly half the 922 million bushels on hand at the start of this month were pawned under the crop-loan program with the government for periods of up to three years. Farmers are less than eager to redeem their crops now, despite prompting from Washington, because of the prospects for yet higher prices. Another official of a major grain exporting house said the Soviet Union was a prime example of the demand situation. In 1972, its total grain production was 6.17 billion bushels. In 1975, that fell to 5.14 billion bushels. Last year it was a record 8.7 billion, but this year Washington thinks it may drop to as low as 6.24 billion. And even with a record crop last year the Soviet Union still had to book imports of 184 million bushels of wheat and 367 million bushels of feed grains through this month, the export official said. “Now they may substantially raise their purchasing. So will such customers as Japan as they move away from rice toward wheat bread. We Americans don’t realize it, but bread is still a luxury in many parts of the world,” he said. And all wheat importers, whether recent or long time, are rushing to book dwindling supplies today because they fear prices will rise further. A food company executive declared: “Everybody is naked today. The foreigners had grown used to relatively stable prices and had been buying hand-to-mouth since 1975. So have almost all American millers, bakers and just about everyone who uses wheat.”

Opinion By DAVID BARR Civic Affairs Editor

safe from the eagle eyes of DePauw security officers. OH, YES, EVERYONE knows that clearing of blocks of housing has created lots on which cars could be parked. But the geography is wrong as far as the Union is concerned. They are several blocks away, and I’ve noticed that university personnel

8. Nag him constantly about taking better care of his health if you want to be constantly reminded how much better you’d feel if you lost a few pounds. 9. Never blame a husband for having relatives and most husbands won’t blame you. 10. Wait until after breakfast to tell him the plumber sent a bill for $398. 11. If birthdays are more important to you than Christmas, Hanukkah and the Fourth of July combined, put a Christmas tree wrapped in red, white and blue bunting topped by a menorah in the living room several days before you want to receive gifts. 12. Don’t complain that he doesn’t take his turn washing the dishes unless you take your turn emptying the cat box. 13. If you want to get a husband out of the house chasing divorcees and widows, always read a Gothic novel at the dinner table. 14. Never cut your toenails while watching television unless you want a husband who belches during the Academy Awards. 15. Wait until after breakfast to tell him

Morton I. Sosland, publisher and editor of Milling & Baking News, the industry’s leading publication and the host of the Kansas City meeting of food company executives, offered this view of the grain situation: “Simply put, if the Soviet shortfall is as serious as everyone thinks, and they want to maintain human and animal wheat rations this year, they will have to import just about what America exported to all foreign buyers in the crop year just ended. “Breaking down Soviet grain production figures, we find the latest wheat estimate for 1979 at 2.9 billion bushels, compared with the 4.4 billion produced last year. We don’t have that much wheat to sell, nor do all four major exporters put together.” Another unknown element is China, he continued, explaining that domestic grain buyers get nervous at the mention of that country. Peking imported 330 million bushels of wheat during the last crop year, and if it has normal harvests in 1979, he said, the Chinese would need to increase their buying by 110 to 184 million bushels just to keep pace with their population growth. Last October, the government granted long-term credit facilities to Peking to buy large quantities of United States farm produce in order to mollify American farmers then complaining about low prices, as well as to smooth the process of normalizing relations between the two nations.

shun them too - too far out. When Minshall Laboratory was torn down, there was town speculation that a parking lot adjacent to the Union would be made. Grass now grows over the “grave” of old Minshall. The U-Shop burned and a suitable par ing area was exposed. Then the old music school was battered to rubble and again the public cry: “Now there will be parking across the street from the Union.” But again there was seeding and sodding, and again there is an expanse of grass. I’VE BEEN TOLD that the “grass concept” for the campus has been favored by the DePauw board and administration. There is nothing wrong with grass, but green money, the kind all private colleges and universities need to exist, also has a pleasing color. It seems altogether probable that parking reserved for the Union would increase the public traffic flow to this place. The kitchen, the gift annex and the book store all would profit. Several years ago, a book store manager spoke of the urging he received to lure the

what he said last night to a whole roomful of people after the third martini. 16. Don’t try to improve his mind and he won’t try to teach you about basketball. 17. Leave both your minds alone or you’ll ruin the Super Bowl arguing whether you ought to be reading Heidegger or getting in touch with econometrics instead of wasting time on television. 18. Take the trouble to find a decent mustard for his pastrami and he’ll take the trouble to buy a better grade of rye. 19. When you want to move someplace more expensive, don’t blame it on the cockroaches and he won’t disappoint you by settling for a phone call to the exterminator. 20. When you run out of things to argue about, have a baby so you can argue about who has the most influential genes. 21. If a double chin appears in the house one day, pretend it’s not there until a second one arrives to keep it company.

A little 0f... This and That

By JIM ZEIS Banner-Graphic Civic Affairs Editor I hope you kind readers will bear with me if I do a little reminiscing in my column today. Some years ago I was a freshman pledge of the Phi Gamma Delta fraternity at DePauw University. In those days, and I suppose they still do, pledges had certain chores to do during the week at the frat house. Come fraternity meeting night the pledges names were on the bulletin board and the demerits were posted. It seems that I always had a demerit mark or two even when I thought I had done my job. Well, the paddle was wielded and I got so I could almost tell who was doing the wielding. Upperclassmen were Hank Chillas, Rick McGinnis, Harold Allen, Morris Bridwell, Hoi Slutz to name a few. One night we freshmen were sent to bed on the third floor of the old frame building. But it wasn’t for long. We were aroused and had certain assignments. I was told to go to the stone quarry opposite what is now the city park and get a note off the office door. That note told me to then go (o Forest Hill Cemetery and get a note off a certain tomb stone. It was mighty quiet and kind of spooky but

June 25,1979, The Putnam County Banner Graphic

public into his place and thereby boost his sales volume. His suggestion that adjacent parking would give the place a financial lift apparently failed to be taken seriously. PARKING AREAS don’t have to be eyesores. They don’t have to be a vast expanse of blacktop like a supermarket lot. The science building lot with its island in no way detracts from the beauty of the campus in my opinion. Over the state, public institutions have created landscaped parking that have fulfilled a need without taking away the beauty of the surroundings. Among the areas seemingly most favored by many faculty members and townspeogle is the former Minshall Laboratory site. Partially screened by trees, it would fit into the campus pattern with a minimum of distraction, if that is what university officials are concerned about. SPOKEN SENTIMENT from university sources leans toward an even more workable town-gown relationship. Consideration of Union building parking certainly would be a move in this direction.

Otherwise, you get into arguments about who isn’t the least bit like Cary Grant and who isn’t the least bit like the divorcee in that roomful of people last night after the second martini, which leads to lawyers. 22. Unless you like to hear a fiUsband whine with self-pity on long automobile trips, learn to drive. 23. Don’t surprise him with a new hair color when he arrives home and he won’t be tempted to surprise you by coming backfrom Los Angeles with a new face lift. (This is for later married life when you also always watch Lawrence Welk together so you’ll have something to talk about.) 24. Don’t ask him if he loves you when he wants to talk about Richard Nixon or complain about cockroaches, and someday he’ll remember that you didn’t and tell you he loves you and hand you a birthday present, three days late.

I climbed over the fence and got the note and returned to the Phi Gam house. I didn’t tell them that I rode a bicycle that night which saved a lot of walking and also time. We were put back to bed again and a short time later we were again aroused and blindfolded. We were driven around town in several cars and finally came to a stop, but right then we didn’t know just where. The blindfolds were taken off and we were told to walk back to town. Being a Greencastle native I realized that we were northwest of town some seven or eight miles. I saw the lights of the city rather dimly in the distance and I started leading the pledges with the exception of one. Bob Graham decided he would spend the rest of the night in a hay stack, which he did. When we got to the Monon Restaurant, one of the fellows had a $5 bill in his shoe so we had coffee and doughnuts before completing our homeward journey. Come midmorning and the upper classmen became a little concerned about Bob not being there. Eventually, he showed up and if I remember correctly, he was paddled.

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